CICC(SH:601995)2025-03-11 01:47Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the commodity market, suggesting a mixed investment strategy with a focus on low volatility commodities [2][3][10]. Core Insights - The commodity market has shown significant changes recently, with a notable shift from macro-driven trends to a focus on fundamental pricing mechanisms [3][6]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors, such as U.S. tariffs and Trump's policies, on various commodity sectors, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of these influences [4][5][12]. - Supply risks are evolving from a binary to a more complex three-dimensional framework, incorporating spatial, temporal, and geopolitical dimensions [7][9]. - The report suggests that while some commodities may face supply constraints, others may not see significant price movements due to balanced supply and demand dynamics [10][11]. Summary by Sections Commodity Market Overview - The correlation index among commodities has decreased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2]. - The market is transitioning from a macro-driven environment to one where fundamental factors play a more significant role in pricing [3][6]. Geopolitical Influences - U.S. tariff policies are causing disruptions in the commodity market, particularly affecting aluminum and steel prices [4][5]. - The report discusses the potential impacts of Trump's policies on oil prices, highlighting the complexity of these influences [4][12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the commodity market is moving towards a state of oversupply, with a potential return to a more balanced state by 2025 [6][10]. - Supply risks are now viewed through a three-dimensional lens, considering spatial, temporal, and geopolitical factors [7][9]. Specific Commodity Insights - Oil prices are expected to face upward pressure due to supply constraints, particularly in the context of OPEC's production limits [10][12]. - The aluminum sector may experience cost increases due to tariff impacts, while the steel market is likely to see price increases domestically [4][5]. - Agricultural commodities, particularly soybeans, are expected to remain under pressure from supply dynamics, with a focus on South American production [18].