Homa(002668) 国信证券·2025-03-11 01:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Smart Home (002668.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights that TCL Smart Home achieved a revenue of 18.36 billion with a year-on-year growth of 21.0% and a net profit of 1.02 billion, reflecting a 29.6% increase. The non-recurring net profit reached 1.00 billion, up 39.8% [1][3] - The report indicates a strong performance in the refrigerator export market, with a 21.8% increase in export value for 2024, and TCL's washing machine revenue grew by 33.2% to 2.70 billion [2][3] - The report suggests an upward revision of profit forecasts due to sustained high demand in the refrigerator export market and the implementation of domestic replacement policies, projecting net profits of 1.13 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.34 billion for 2025-2027 [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, TCL Smart Home's revenue was 18.36 billion, a 21.0% increase, with a net profit of 1.02 billion, reflecting a 29.6% growth. The fourth quarter revenue was 4.42 billion, up 15.1%, and net profit was 190 million, increasing by 29.7% [1][3] - The company did not declare dividends for 2024 due to negative retained earnings [1] Market Trends - The refrigerator export market in China saw a 21.8% increase in value and an 18.6% increase in volume for 2024, with TCL's washing machine revenue growing significantly [2][3] - The average price of refrigerators increased by 2.5% to approximately 938 yuan per unit, while washing machine sales volume rose by 39% [3] Cost Management - The report notes a significant optimization in expenses, with management, R&D, and financial expense ratios decreasing by 2.2%, 0.9%, and 2.3% respectively in Q4 [3] - The net profit margin improved by 1.2 percentage points to 8.3% in Q4, with the annual net profit margin increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6% [3] Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 1.13 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.34 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 10%, and 8% respectively [3][4]