东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250311

Core Insights - The oil and gas extraction and refining sectors are expected to maintain a high level of prosperity due to a favorable oil price environment, with the oil price center anticipated to remain at a mid-high level [2][10] - The profitability of the oil and gas extraction sector has increased, while the refining and trading sector has seen a slight decline in revenue [2][10] - The average Brent crude oil price for 2024 was $82.72 per barrel, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.70% [10] Oil and Gas Sector Analysis - The oil price fluctuated between $69.19 and $91.17 per barrel in 2024, with an average monthly price of $80.8 per barrel [3] - In early 2025, Brent crude oil prices averaged $78.34 in January and $75.55 in February, reflecting a month-on-month decline [3] - Global oil supply is expected to gradually recover in the first half of 2025, although the price center may slightly decrease but remain at a mid-high level [4] OPEC+ and Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cut agreement to March 2025, aiming to stabilize oil prices amid global economic uncertainties [5][9] - The cooperation between OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries is crucial in addressing market supply-demand imbalances, with a focus on maintaining oil price stability [9] Investment Recommendations - Companies with high dividends and growth potential are recommended, particularly China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [11] - The expected average dividend yields for major oil companies from 2024 to 2026 are projected to be 4.66% for CNPC, 5.19% for Sinopec, 4.34% for CNOOC, and 6.50% for China National Petroleum [11] Securities Industry Overview - The securities industry is experiencing a period of policy optimization and capital market reform, with a focus on enhancing investor protection and promoting long-term value investment [12][15] - The introduction of new policies has led to increased market activity, with a significant rise in the number of equity funds registered [13] Real Estate Sector Insights - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through various fiscal and monetary policies, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a healthy property market for overall economic stability [31][32] - The report highlights the need for targeted measures to address local market conditions and improve housing supply and demand dynamics [37]