Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Zai Lab with a target price of HKD 56.73, indicating an expected upside from the current price of HKD 27.90 [2][9][20]. Core Insights - Zai Lab's Efgartigimod sales exceeded expectations, generating USD 93.6 million in FY24, significantly higher than the previous year's USD 10 million, driven by its inclusion in the National Reimbursement Drug List for generalized myasthenia gravis [3][17]. - The management projects FY25 revenue between USD 560 million and USD 590 million, with a potential for non-GAAP operating profitability by Q4 2025 [4][16][20]. - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 40% in revenue from FY24 to FY28, supported by multiple potential blockbuster products nearing commercialization [5][18]. Financial Performance - For FY24, Zai Lab reported a net revenue of USD 400 million, a year-on-year increase of 49%, with a gross profit margin of 63.1% [3][16]. - R&D expenses were USD 235 million, down 11.8% year-on-year, while SG&A expenses increased by 6.1% to USD 299 million [3][16]. - The net loss for FY24 was USD 257 million, an improvement from the previous year's loss of USD 335 million [3][16]. Product Pipeline and Growth Drivers - Efgartigimod is expected to continue its growth trajectory, potentially exceeding USD 150 million in revenue in FY25 due to its exclusivity advantage and expanding patient base [4][17]. - Zai Lab has several products in the pipeline, including KarXT for schizophrenia, which is projected to have peak sales of USD 1 billion, and Bemarituzumab for gastric cancer, with Phase III data expected in 1H25 [5][18]. - ZL-1310 has received orphan drug designation from the FDA for small cell lung cancer and is expected to accelerate overseas licensing opportunities [6][19]. Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been adjusted to USD 561 million and USD 775 million, respectively, reflecting a growth of 41% and 38% year-on-year [9][20]. - The net profit forecast for FY25 and FY26 has been fine-tuned to USD -140 million and USD 10 million, respectively, indicating a path towards profitability by FY26 [9][20].
再鼎医药：艾加莫德全年收入超预期，2025年四季度有望实现扭亏-20250311