个人消费类贷款证券化2024年度运营报告与2025年度展望：宏观经济稳中趋缓，居民有效需求有待提升；个人消费类贷款ABS发行大幅回落，消费金融公司占据主要位置；促消费与防风险政策出台，消费信贷行业转型高质量发展

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's economy is expected to show a steady but slowing trend, with final consumption's contribution to economic growth weakening marginally[4] - By the end of 2024, the narrow personal consumption loan balance is projected to reach CNY 21.01 trillion, reflecting a growth of 6.23% compared to the end of 2023[5] Policy Initiatives - The government has introduced multiple policies aimed at stimulating consumption and regulating the consumer finance market, focusing on consumer rights protection and risk management[12][14] - Key policies include promoting large-scale equipment updates and encouraging the recycling of consumer goods, which are expected to enhance consumption potential[15][17] ABS Issuance Trends - In 2024, the issuance of personal consumption loan ABS products totaled 17 transactions, with a cumulative issuance scale of CNY 243.23 billion, marking a significant decrease of 48.22% year-on-year[5][18] - The issuance rates for priority (AAAsf) securities ranged from 1.90% to 2.50%, indicating a narrowing compared to 2023[28] Market Performance - The secondary market for personal consumption loan ABS products saw a transaction volume of CNY 77.14 billion, down 45.79% from the previous year, with an average transaction amount of CNY 0.68 billion[30][32] - The cumulative default rates for ABS products initiated by commercial banks are generally lower than those initiated by consumer finance companies, reflecting stronger risk management practices[51][38] Asset Quality and Characteristics - The average loan amount in the asset pool for 2024 was CNY 6.93 million, with a high degree of asset pool dispersion[32][33] - The average weighted contract interest rate for the underlying assets was 16.35%, indicating a relatively high cost of borrowing[33] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2025 suggests that under the dual pressures of declining LPR rates and rising non-performing loan ratios, financial institutions will need to optimize their pricing strategies and risk management capabilities[51] - Continued monitoring of macroeconomic trends is essential, as they may impact the credit quality of personal consumption loan ABS products in the long term[51]