Tebon Securities·2025-03-11 08:23Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][5] Core Viewpoints - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry has significantly improved, with the average profit reaching 3,354.51 CNY/ton as of March 10, 2025, driven by a 5% increase in electrolytic aluminum prices and a 40% decrease in alumina prices [5] - The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry is at a high level of 43.6 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.5%, indicating limited room for further increases in production [5] - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise in 2025, with a projected consumption of approximately 4.247 million tons, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's decline [5] - The price of alumina is anticipated to continue declining, which may further enhance the profitability of aluminum enterprises [5] - Investment recommendations include maintaining attention on the electrolytic aluminum industry, with specific stock picks such as Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Tianshan Aluminum [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a market performance trend for the non-ferrous metals sector, showing fluctuations in comparison to the CSI 300 index [3] Industry Demand and Supply - The electrolytic aluminum demand is projected to improve in 2025, with a recovery in sectors such as real estate and transportation [5] - The alumina production capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2025, potentially lowering costs for electrolytic aluminum production [5] Profitability and Cost Trends - The report highlights a notable improvement in profitability due to declining costs and favorable price movements in the electrolytic aluminum market [5]