摩根士丹利：亚洲研究-通货再膨胀、关税与科技

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The report anticipates nominal GDP growth in China to remain below 4% starting from Q2 2025 due to factors such as slower exports, housing market weakness, and ongoing deflation [3][4] - The impact of tariff shocks on exports is expected to worsen overcapacity, although China is better prepared this time with supply chain adjustments [5] - The return of tech innovation is noted, but it is insufficient to break the cycle of deflation [5] Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Growth in China is projected to weaken from Q2 2025, influenced by declining exports and housing market challenges [4] - The report highlights a significant rebound in manufacturing and construction PMIs, while services remain subdued [59] Tariffs and Trade - The effective tariff rate on imports from China to the US has increased by 1.5 percentage points, indicating escalating trade tensions [9][10] - China's response to US tariffs has been measured, with a focus on maintaining trade balance despite challenges [23] Policy and Stimulus - A modest fiscal package of RMB 2 trillion has been announced, with a focus on technology and innovation [45][49] - The report outlines a "5R" reflation strategy aimed at addressing economic challenges through various policy measures, including fiscal and monetary easing [56] Social Dynamics and Welfare - The report emphasizes the need for social welfare reforms to stimulate consumption and reduce precautionary savings [78][80] - China's social welfare spending is relatively low compared to other countries, indicating room for improvement [82]