有色金属：USGS 2024年数据洞察：产量、储量分化，聚焦关键矿产

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The global production of base metals shows a divergent trend, with significant challenges in resource continuity for China, particularly in copper, aluminum, and lead [2][14] - The supply of cobalt is heavily concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which controls 75.86% of global production, while the overall cobalt market is facing a surplus [25] - The report highlights the increasing importance of rare metals such as tungsten, antimony, and rare earths, with China holding a dominant position in their production and reserves [5][29] Summary by Sections Base Metals - Global copper production is projected to reach 23 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 1.77%, primarily driven by the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia [13] - China's aluminum production is expected to be 43 million tons, accounting for 59.72% of global output, with a growth of 2.86% [13] - Lead production is forecasted to decline by 1.60% to 4.3 million tons, while zinc production is also expected to decrease by 0.83% to 12 million tons [13][18] Precious Metals - Global gold production is anticipated to grow by 1.54% to 3,300 tons, with China and Russia being the main producers [3][24] - Silver production is expected to decline by 1.96% to 25,000 tons due to falling ore grades and strikes affecting supply [3][24] - The platinum group metals are facing significant supply reductions, with global platinum production around 170 tons, primarily from South Africa [3][24] Minor Metals - Cobalt production is set to reach a record high of 290,000 tons in 2024, with the Democratic Republic of Congo contributing the majority [25] - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to export controls and increasing demand from the photovoltaic industry [25] - Lithium production is projected to increase by 17.65% to 240,000 tons, but the market is still facing a surplus [26] Rare Earths - China holds 48.89% of global rare earth reserves, with a production share of 69.23%, indicating a strong position in the global supply chain [29] - The report notes that supply constraints and increasing downstream demand could lead to a rise in rare earth prices [29]