美国2月非农就业数据点评：就业数据略微缓解市场对衰退的担忧

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. slightly increased to 4.1% in February 2025, compared to the expected 4%[4] - The Sahm rule indicator decreased to 0.27%, down from 0.37% last month, alleviating recession concerns[8] - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[30] Non-Farm Payrolls - Non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs in February, slightly below the expected 160,000[9] - The three-month average for non-farm employment growth is 200,000, while the six-month average is 191,000[55] - In February, three sectors saw job losses, while government employment continued to grow[10] Wage Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 4% year-over-year, with a month-over-month increase of 0.3%[11] - Nine sectors outperformed inflation in wage growth, indicating a mixed performance across industries[77] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations suggest a high probability (over 90%) of at least two rate cuts in 2025, with a 65% chance of three or more cuts[13] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait-and-see" approach in the first half of 2025, with potential rate cuts in the second half[4]