证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究|传媒 AI 引领，IP 驱动——传媒互联网行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年07月22日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2025 年继续关注两大投资主线：1）AI 应用加速落地，Agent 能力边界持续拓宽，将影响营 销、电商、教育、影视、游戏等行业，进一步提升效率、创造增量，同时关注 AI 玩具等硬件 端机会。2）IP 衍生品板块进入高速发展期，精神消费、悦己消费成为中长期消费增长点。我 们看好优质国产 IP 通过拓展线上内容、线下实体衍生品，提升 IP 影响力，打开商业化空间。 |分析师及联系人 姚蕾 丁子然 SAC：S0590524090001 SAC：S0590523080003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 34 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年07月22日 传媒 AI 引领，IP 驱动——传媒互联网行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -20% 7% 33% 60% 2024/7 2024/11 2 ...

Group 1: Economic Demand and Investment - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [26] - Fixed asset investment showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in May, recovering from a previous decline of 0.8% [53] - Infrastructure investment rebounded with a month-on-month growth of 0.9%, while manufacturing investment accelerated with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [60] Group 2: Industrial Production and Employment - The industrial added value in May increased by 0.4% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of 0.2% [66] - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [81] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities also fell to 5.0%, indicating a marginal improvement in employment conditions [83] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The temporary suspension of certain tariffs by the Trump administration is expected to alleviate external demand pressure, allowing for a better internal demand recovery [88] - The GDP growth forecast for the year is maintained at 5.0%, despite anticipated pressure on exports in the second half of the year [88] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected geopolitical events that could impact export performance [89]

Group 1 - The report indicates that dividend assets have recently experienced a rapid "contraction," with only the banking sector performing well, while other dividend assets have shown mediocre results [13][15][27] - Historical analysis suggests that after each contraction of dividend assets and the overall market, there tends to be a short-term adjustment followed by a rebound; however, current valuation levels of dividend assets still have significant room for growth compared to historical peaks [13][15][37] - Two strategies are proposed for outperforming dividend assets: the first involves assessing market trends to select enhancement directions, favoring high dividend and high-quality stocks; the second suggests a mixed allocation strategy to navigate market cycles, recommending a combination of high dividend, low PB, and high profit growth [13][15][47][48] Group 2 - The market is gradually stabilizing, with a shift towards value stocks; small-cap value stocks and the CSI 2000 index have outperformed, while large-cap growth stocks have lagged [71] - Industry performance shows that environmental protection and biopharmaceutical sectors have excelled, while automotive and electric equipment sectors have underperformed [71][80] - Year-to-date, beauty and personal care, as well as automotive sectors, have shown strong performance, while coal and real estate sectors have lagged behind [71][80]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [10] Core Viewpoints - The top-level design is driving a new development model in the real estate sector, with the promotion of existing home sales as a key component. It is expected that various regions will gradually introduce pilot policies and supporting measures for existing home sales. This model can mitigate delivery risks, stabilize housing prices, and help the real estate market recover. Companies with strong operational capabilities, high product quality, and robust financing abilities will be better suited to adapt to this model, leading to a scenario where high-quality companies prevail [5][13]. Summary by Sections 1. System Reform: Transition from Pre-sale to Existing Home Sales - The evolution of China's housing system has gone through three stages: welfare housing, commodity housing pre-sale, and the current pilot phase of existing home sales. The pre-sale system has effectively addressed housing shortages and financing challenges, supporting long-term rapid growth in the real estate sector. However, with rising debt levels and delivery risks, the policy focus has shifted towards "ensuring delivery and preventing risks," leading to the gradual promotion of existing home sales [11][16]. 2. International Comparisons: Low Down Payments and Strong Regulatory Mechanisms - Internationally, the common practice involves low down payments combined with strong regulatory frameworks to protect buyers' interests. Countries like the US, UK, Japan, and Germany have established systems where developers receive payments based on construction progress, ensuring that funds are used appropriately and buyers are protected from risks associated with incomplete projects [25][26][27][30]. 3. Current Domestic Situation: Encouragement of Existing Home Sales - Since 2021, the proportion of existing home sales in China's commodity residential sales has been on the rise, reaching 32.7% in Q1 2025, an increase of 22.5 percentage points from the low in 2020. Several provinces, including Hainan, have seen existing home sales exceed 50% of total sales, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [12][32][39]. 4. Impact of Existing Home Sales: Promoting Reform and Enhancing Operational Capabilities - The shift to existing home sales is expected to delay the conversion of land to housing, reducing new supply and stabilizing prices. This model will extend the cash flow cycle for developers, requiring them to enhance their operational capabilities. The transition may lead to a decline in land auction enthusiasm and a decrease in land prices, as developers will need to consider thicker safety margins in their bidding strategies [47][48]. 5. Investment Recommendations: Focus on High-Quality Developers - The report recommends investing in high-quality developers with strong operational efficiency and financing capabilities, such as China Overseas Development, Greentown China, and others. These companies are expected to thrive under the new existing home sales model, while weaker firms may face accelerated exit from the market [13][39].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from being a virtual goods agent for telecom operators to a builder of cloud terminal platforms, with a projected revenue CAGR of 32% from 2020 to 2024, and a 45% revenue growth in Q1 2025 [1][2]. - The digital goods operation serves as a stable cash flow business, while the cloud terminal and IoT operations are expected to drive rapid growth in the second and third curves of the business [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2012, has expanded its business from digital goods operations to IoT traffic operations and AI + computing operations, becoming a core technology service provider for Huawei Cloud [10][12]. - Digital goods services account for over 80% of revenue, with IoT and cloud terminal operations poised for significant growth [12][38]. Digital Goods Operations - The company integrates various digital goods and fragmented channel resources, establishing stable partnerships with telecom operators and video service providers [1][25]. - The business model is highly replicable across regions and customer segments, with a focus on online and rights-based services [47][30]. Cloud Terminal Operations - The company collaborates with Huawei and China Mobile to develop cloud phones, enhancing user experience through cloud-based computing [2][48]. - The cloud phone user base is rapidly growing, with a target of over 100 million users in three years, leading to increased revenue from shared income [2][56]. IoT Scene Operations - The company has developed IoT traffic operations and solutions, targeting various sectors with a focus on traffic operation as the core business model [3][73]. - It has established partnerships with over 500 industry clients, leveraging its technology to provide comprehensive IoT solutions [73][84]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 134 million, 193 million, 280 million, and 406 million yuan from 2024 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 68x, 47x, 32x, and 22x [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for rapid development in the second and third business curves, recommending investment based on strong growth prospects [3][4].

Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The US will impose approximately 30% tariffs on China, which includes a 20% fentanyl tariff and a 10% minimum baseline tariff as part of the "reciprocal tariff" policy[8] - China will respond with a 10% tariff on US goods as a reaction to the 10% reciprocal tariff[15] Group 2: Economic Impact - The implementation of a 10% minimum baseline tariff could lead to a decrease in US imports by approximately $652.4 billion[28] - The US could potentially collect around $264.4 billion in additional tariff revenue from the 10% baseline tariff[35] - If a 30% tariff is applied, US imports from China could decline by nearly $150 billion, exceeding a 30% drop[30] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, the US capital markets experienced a rare simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and currency[15] - The higher tariff rates were ultimately suspended due to negative feedback from the capital markets, with only the 10% baseline tariff being implemented[30]

Group 1 - The report highlights that concerns regarding Chinese concept stocks (中概股) have resurfaced, particularly due to potential investment restrictions from the U.S. government and the re-emphasis on the HFCAA [8][16] - It concludes that the short-term risks associated with the delisting of Chinese concept stocks are manageable, as over 70% of these stocks have completed dual listings in Hong Kong and the U.S. [17][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the reduction pressure on stocks with high U.S. institutional holdings, especially those exceeding 40% [19][58] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the performance of dual-listed Chinese concept stocks has been superior during previous market turbulence, suggesting a higher resilience to risks [18][42] - The report notes that the trading volume in the Hong Kong market for dual-listed stocks has been increasing, with the proportion reaching approximately 39% as of April 17, 2025 [52][54] - It identifies 34 companies that meet the criteria for dual primary or secondary listings in Hong Kong, which could enhance market liquidity and attract more investment if they return [20][22] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential impact of U.S. investment restrictions, which could lead to forced sell-offs by U.S. institutional investors holding significant stakes in certain stocks [19][58] - It highlights that the market capitalization of Chinese concept stocks listed only in the U.S. is heavily concentrated in the consumer discretionary sector, accounting for 69.6% [34] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the potential delisting processes, indicating that the timeline for forced delisting could take at least 9-10 months [37][40]

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Outperform the market, maintained [2] - Core Viewpoint: The report highlights the growth potential of the collectible card game industry, with the company positioned as a leader in the market [3][4] Group 2 - Company Overview: The company is a leading player in China's collectible card game sector, focusing on a diverse product portfolio that includes toys, figurines, and stationery [7][9] - Industry Overview: The IP toy market is thriving, with collectible card categories experiencing the fastest growth [21][22] - Financial Performance: The company's revenue growth is driven by top IP products, with significant increases in sales figures [8][10] Group 3 - Business Model: The company employs an integrated business model that leverages product experience, interactive operations, and production capabilities [13][55] - Product Portfolio: The core product is collectible cards, complemented by figurines, other toys, and stationery, showcasing a diverse product range [54][80] - IP Matrix: The company has established a diverse IP matrix, enhancing its overall IP operation capabilities [83]

Group 1 - During the 2018 China-US trade friction, domestic demand-oriented companies outperformed export-oriented companies in both fundamentals and stock prices. The gap in revenue and net profit growth between these two types of companies was relatively controllable despite the tariffs imposed by the US [8][14][29] - The performance of companies with high exposure to the US market did not significantly differ from those with high exposure to the EU and emerging markets. This indicates that the market is more focused on the companies' domestic demand replacement capabilities and the resilience of global supply chain restructuring rather than their geographical export distribution [14][45] - A detailed analysis using the FactSet supply chain database revealed that companies with no revenue from the US market in their downstream operations performed better in terms of net profit growth, revenue growth, gross margin, and net margin compared to other combinations of companies [15][56] Group 2 - The report identifies industries with low revenue exposure to the US market, including coal, building materials, social services, food and beverage, telecommunications, and public utilities, which can be considered as domestic demand-oriented industries from a supply chain perspective [15][56] - The analysis suggests that companies with low exposure to the US market in their downstream operations are likely to have better net value performance, as evidenced by their slower decline in net profit growth during challenging market conditions [60][63] - The report emphasizes that the overall market sentiment is shifting towards value-oriented investments, with a gradual stabilization observed in the market [20][22]

Company Overview - Investment Rating: Outperform the market, maintained [2] - Core Viewpoint: Chery Automobile is positioned for a new chapter in intelligent electric vehicles, focusing on technology and global expansion [2][3] Company Development - Chery Automobile has evolved from reverse engineering to independent innovation, establishing itself as a global leader [3][4] - The company has a rich history of milestones, including the launch of its first car in 1999 and the establishment of its electric vehicle technology company in 2010 [5][9] Business Strategy - Chery's business model includes a dual focus on passenger and commercial vehicles, with a strong emphasis on both traditional fuel and new energy vehicles [12][14] - The company operates multiple brands, including Chery, EXEED, and iCAR, to cover various market segments and consumer needs [93][96] Financial Performance - In 2022, Chery Group's automotive sales reached 1.23 million units, with revenue exceeding 200 billion yuan for the first time [33] - By 2024, the group expects to achieve sales of 2.6 million units and revenue of 480 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 50% [33][41] Industry Trends - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by electrification, intelligence, and globalization [42] - Global automotive sales are projected to reach 90.87 million units in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.8% [43][44] Market Position - Chery is positioned as a key player in the domestic market, with a focus on expanding its international presence [96] - The company has seen significant growth in export volumes, leading the Chinese brand passenger car exports for 22 consecutive years [76][96] Technological Advancements - Chery has invested heavily in R&D, with expenditures reaching 6.66 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 82.8% [84] - The company has developed a comprehensive R&D system with over 13,000 patents, enhancing its competitive edge in the automotive sector [84][87] Global Expansion - Chery's global strategy includes entering emerging markets and strengthening its presence in traditional markets like Russia [96] - The company aims to leverage its multi-brand strategy to capture diverse market segments and enhance international competitiveness [96]