2025年2月通胀数据点评：结构上的积极变化有待政策进一步巩固

Inflation Data Summary - February 2025 CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, down from 0.5% in January, and fell by 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a 0.7% increase in January[1] - February 2025 PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly improved from a 2.3% decline in January, and fell by 0.1% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% decrease in January[1] Key Contributors to CPI Changes - Food items accounted for over 80% of the total CPI decline, with February food CPI down 3.3% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month[4] - Specific food items saw significant declines: pork (-9.7%), eggs (-3.4%), fresh vegetables (-15%), and fresh fruits (-2.4%) year-on-year[4] - The favorable weather conditions in February contributed to the larger decline in fresh vegetable prices, contrasting with adverse weather in the previous year[4] Core CPI and Service Sector Impact - Non-food CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in February, down from 0.5% and 0.6% respectively in January[4] - Service CPI fell by 0.4% year-on-year, significantly impacted by a 9.6% decline in tourism CPI due to the timing of the Spring Festival[4] PPI Trends - PPI decline narrowed, with upstream raw materials PPI down 6.3% and 1.5% for mining and raw materials respectively[4] - Energy sector PPI continued to decline, with oil and gas extraction down 3.3% year-on-year, reflecting international energy price fluctuations[4] - Midstream equipment manufacturing PPI showed mixed results, with railway and aerospace manufacturing PPI up 0.4% while general equipment manufacturing down 1.3%[4] Overall Economic Outlook - The report indicates that structural changes in the economy are positive but require further policy support to solidify these trends[1] - The focus for 2025 remains on addressing consumption shortfalls, as indicated by the fluctuations in CPI and PPI data[4]