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房地产行业行业周报:两会再提止跌回稳目标
Orient Securities·2025-03-12 09:37

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the real estate sector [6][9]. Core Viewpoints - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market and promote recovery through various policies, including monetary easing and targeted measures to boost housing demand [3][4][14]. - The report highlights the importance of balancing supply and demand, with a focus on revitalizing existing land and properties while ensuring high-quality housing standards [4][46]. - The report emphasizes the need for effective risk management in the real estate sector to prevent debt defaults among developers [5][46]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - Implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts of 40-50 basis points, expected to lower housing costs [3][44]. - Continued efforts to stabilize the real estate market through city-specific policy adjustments and the promotion of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations [3][44]. Supply Side - Activation of existing land and commercial properties, with greater autonomy for local governments in acquisition and pricing [4][44]. - Allocation of 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for local governments, aimed at investment in construction and land acquisition [4][44]. - Introduction of high-quality housing standards to meet public demand, with a focus on safety, comfort, and sustainability [4][46]. Risk Management - Emphasis on the role of real estate financing coordination mechanisms to ensure housing delivery and mitigate developer debt risks [5][46]. - The report sets a target of delivering 3.38 million housing units in 2024, with many provinces achieving over 90% delivery progress [5][46]. Market Performance - The real estate sector index underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a relative return of -2.5% [9][12]. - New home sales in 44 major cities decreased by 33.5% compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in market activity [16][21]. Company Announcements - Key companies such as Lujiazui and China Merchants Shekou have released their annual performance reports, indicating varied financial results [40][41]. - Poly Developments reported a 17.39% decrease in signed area for February 2025, while the signed amount increased by 2.38% [42][43].