轮胎行业月报：成本助推轮胎新一轮涨价，国产品牌进入高端市场

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "bullish" outlook for the tire industry, indicating a potential increase in stock prices and market performance over the next six months [61]. Core Insights - Rising raw material costs are prompting a new round of price increases in the tire industry, with some companies planning to raise prices by 3%-5% starting mid-March 2025 [61]. - The domestic tire production is expected to maintain high operational levels due to recovering demand, with a positive outlook for the replacement market as logistics and construction activities resume [61]. - Domestic brands are making significant strides in the high-end market, particularly in collaboration with premium automotive manufacturers [61]. Summary by Sections Cost Side - Raw material prices are fluctuating, with overall costs remaining relatively high historically. The shipping costs have decreased recently [62]. - Specific raw material prices in February 2025 include: - Butadiene at 11,833.33 CNY/ton, down 1.62% month-on-month but up 17.47% year-on-year - Natural rubber at 2,107.89 USD/ton, up 3.38% month-on-month and 33.89% year-on-year [6][7]. Production Side - Tire production in February 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase, with the total output of rubber tires reaching 105.56 million units, a 21.51% increase compared to the previous year [26]. - The average operating rates for semi-steel tires and full-steel tires were 66.52% and 54.44%, respectively, showing increases of 18.02 percentage points and 26.67 percentage points year-on-year [30]. Demand Side - The logistics industry in China is recovering quickly, with the logistics prosperity index at 49.30 in February 2025, indicating a slight decrease but a year-on-year increase [44]. - The overseas replacement market remains strong, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, with a notable demand for replenishment as tariffs are gradually implemented [61]. Industry News - The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) forecasts a 0.9% increase in U.S. tire shipments for 2025, reaching 340.4 million units [55]. - Several tire companies in China have announced price hikes across various tire categories, reflecting a collective adjustment in the market [55]. - New collaborations, such as the partnership between Sailun Tire and Xiaomi for high-performance tires, indicate a shift towards high-end market segments [56].