Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, New Special Energy (1799 HK), with a target price of HKD 7.66, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company is facing significant challenges, including a large impairment leading to a larger-than-expected loss. The average selling price of polysilicon has dropped significantly, impacting revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 [2][7]. - The report highlights that the controlling shareholder, TBEA, is providing substantial financial support to help the company navigate through the current downturn in the market [7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices due to supply-side reforms and seasonal factors affecting electricity prices, which may improve the company's financial outlook in 2026 [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 37,541 million in 2022 to RMB 20,788 million in 2024, with a further drop to RMB 17,657 million in 2025 before recovering to RMB 23,255 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn negative in 2024 with a loss of RMB 3,936 million, followed by a smaller loss of RMB 248 million in 2025, before returning to profitability with a net profit of RMB 1,534 million in 2026 [3][15]. - The average selling price of polysilicon is forecasted to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year to around RMB 38,000 per ton in 2024, significantly below the cash cost of production [7][8]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach, estimating the value of the power station and inverter segments at RMB 88 billion based on a 5.5x P/E ratio for 2025, while the polysilicon segment is valued at RMB 14 billion based on a capacity valuation of RMB 0.5 billion per ton [9][7]. - The total valuation amounts to RMB 102 billion, leading to a revised target price of HKD 7.66, which corresponds to a P/E ratio of 6.6x for 2026 [9][7].
新特能源：大额减值导致预亏超预期，调出港股通或导致股价短期承压-20250313