25年全球暂无新增锑矿供给，国内锑价有望往海外高价弥合

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the antimony industry, indicating potential for price convergence between domestic and overseas markets due to supply constraints [1]. Core Insights - China holds the largest antimony reserves globally, with a projected production share of 60% in 2024, while global antimony production has decreased by 40% over the past fifteen years [3][18]. - Environmental regulations in China have led to a significant decline in domestic antimony production, which is expected to continue impacting global supply [7][28]. - The report highlights that the geopolitical situation, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has further strained global antimony supply, with Russian production expected to drop significantly [4][19]. - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for antimony, with China being the primary supplier, accounting for 76% of U.S. imports of antimony products [6][24]. - The demand for antimony is anticipated to rise, particularly in the flame retardant sector and due to the growth in solar photovoltaic applications [9][33]. Summary by Sections Antimony Supply and Demand - Global antimony reserves are estimated at 2 million tons in 2024, with China holding 670,000 tons [3][18]. - Antimony production in China is projected to be 60% of the global total, with a significant decline in production observed over the last fifteen years [3][18]. - The report notes that U.S. antimony consumption is expected to be 24,000 tons in 2024, with 85% of this demand met through imports [6][24]. Environmental and Regulatory Impact - China's stringent environmental policies have led to a gradual decline in antimony production, with a peak production of 180,000 tons in 2008 dropping to 60,000 tons by 2024 [7][28]. - The report outlines various regulatory measures that have restricted new antimony mining projects in China, contributing to supply constraints [26][28]. Price Dynamics - Following China's implementation of export controls on antimony, overseas prices have surged, with European market prices reaching $59,500 per ton, while domestic prices remain significantly lower [10][34]. - The report anticipates that domestic antimony prices will gradually align with higher international prices due to ongoing supply shortages [10][34]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several companies poised to benefit from the current market dynamics, including Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, Huayu Mining, and Yuguang Gold Lead, all of which have significant antimony production plans [13][39]. - The potential for new antimony mining projects in Australia and the U.S. is highlighted, with several projects expected to come online in the coming years [12][36].