美国2月CPI数据点评：美股调整弱化消费需求，“再通胀”叙事或出现反转

Inflation Data Summary - In February, the overall and core CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.2% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month respectively[2] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI rose by 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 3.1%, both down by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] CPI Trends - The core CPI reached a new low, dropping to levels not seen since April 2021, breaking below the previous range of 3.2-3.3%[3] - The CPI structure showed a divergence in inflation performance between goods and services, with food inflation rising by 0.2% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from January[4] Energy Prices - Energy prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month in February, lower than the 1.1% increase in January, but still above the average of the past 12 months[6] - Gasoline and fuel prices fell by 0.9% in February, while electricity and natural gas prices rose by 1% and 2.5% respectively[6] Core Inflation Contributions - Core services contributed the most to the CPI growth, accounting for 0.15% of the increase, although this was a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous month[9] - Core goods contributed 0.04% to the CPI growth, while the energy component's contribution fell to 0.01%, down by 0.06 percentage points from January[9] Economic Outlook - The adjustment in U.S. stock markets is expected to weaken consumer demand, potentially reversing the "re-inflation" narrative[13] - Factors such as low savings rates and high stock valuations may lead to a decline in consumer spending in 2025, counteracting the effects of tariff and immigration policies aimed at re-inflation[13]