Fangda Packaging(BJ:838163) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-13 06:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant revenue increase in 2024, with projected revenue of 698 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.72%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 44.576 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.22% [3] - The year 2024 is identified as the "promotional year" for the company's adhesive materials, leading to a substantial increase in orders and revenue from these products [3] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with the successful trial operation of the first three automated production lines and plans for a joint processing plant in North America to better serve local customers [4] Financial Summary - The company's financial performance is summarized as follows: - Revenue (in million yuan): 384 in 2022, 500 in 2023, 698 in 2024E, 971 in 2025E, and 1,088 in 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.9%, 30.1%, 39.7%, 39.1%, and 12.0% respectively [6][9] - Net profit (in million yuan): 41 in 2022, 39 in 2023, 45 in 2024E, 60 in 2025E, and 66 in 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.4%, -3.5%, 14.4%, 32.4%, and 10.5% respectively [6][9] - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.32 in 2022, 0.31 in 2023, 0.35 in 2024E, 0.46 in 2025E, and 0.51 in 2026E [6][9] Industry Insights - The demand for adhesive labels is expected to grow significantly due to the rapid expansion of the logistics and e-commerce sectors. The express delivery volume in China is projected to reach 1,750.8 billion pieces in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [5] - The global parcel shipping volume has increased approximately threefold from 43 billion pieces in 2014 to 168.6 billion pieces in 2023, indicating a robust growth trend in the logistics industry [5]