资产配置日报：可以乐观一些

Market Performance - On March 12, the stock market experienced a reversal, with small-cap stocks outperforming, as the CSI 2000 and Wind Micro-cap indices rose by 0.73% and 0.67% respectively[2] - Large-cap indices such as the Dividend Index, CSI 300, and Shanghai Composite Index saw slight declines of 0.40%, 0.36%, and 0.23% respectively[2] - The technology sector faced adjustments, with the Hang Seng Tech Index, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index dropping by 2.04%, 0.73%, and 0.58% respectively[2] Bond Market Dynamics - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds fell by 5.5 basis points and 3.3 basis points, reaching 1.81% and 2.02% respectively[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation, rolling over only 1,754 billion CNY, leading to a net withdrawal of 1,778 billion CNY, which affected market sentiment negatively[3] - Despite the withdrawal, overnight rates stabilized around 1.75-1.80%, indicating a steady borrowing cost and increasing buying power in the bond market[3] Commodity Market Trends - Global market risk aversion intensified due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and recession fears, leading to a rise in precious metal prices, with silver and gold increasing by 1.03% and 0.27% respectively[2] - Industrial metals saw copper prices rise by 2.08%, while other domestic commodities showed mixed results, with asphalt and rebar prices increasing by 0.60% and 0.59% respectively, while glass and iron ore prices fell by 0.43% and 0.32%[2] Investment Outlook - The bond market outlook appears optimistic, with expectations of a potential recovery driven by upcoming financial and economic data releases[4] - The market anticipates that if the data supports a rate cut, the bond market could experience a rapid recovery; otherwise, it may face volatility but remain on a downward trend[4] - The performance of small-cap technology stocks will be crucial in the upcoming earnings season, with a focus on Tencent's capital expenditure plans to gauge market sentiment[7]