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证券行业2025年二季度策略报告:东升西落,追随贝塔
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-03-13 10:23

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The securities sector is expected to focus on recovery, mergers and acquisitions, and performance growth. The first quarter of 2024 saw a significant decline in net profit for listed brokers, but a rebound is anticipated in the first quarter of 2025 due to improved market conditions and increased trading volume [1][2] - The merger and acquisition theme continues to gain traction, with several significant developments in the industry, including the restructuring of major shareholders and the expansion of the market expectations for mergers among brokerages [1][2] - The financial technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on companies that can leverage AI technology and offer high cost-performance ratios [3] Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The first quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 29.4 billion yuan for 43 listed brokers, a year-on-year decline of 32%. However, the first quarter of 2025 is expected to show significant growth due to a low base effect and improved market conditions [1] - The brokerage index has underperformed compared to major indices, presenting a potential for recovery as market activity increases [2] Mergers and Acquisitions - There have been numerous merger and acquisition activities in the brokerage sector since the beginning of the year, with notable announcements from various firms indicating a trend towards consolidation [1][8] Financial Technology - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-value financial technology stocks that can benefit from the ongoing AI revolution, particularly those with lower valuations compared to their peers [3][4] Investment Recommendations - Specific recommendations include brokers such as China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and GF Securities, as well as financial technology firms like Tonghuashun and Dingdian Software [4]