2025年2月美国通胀数据点评：核心通胀降温，再通胀风险下降

Inflation Data Summary - In February, the U.S. CPI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to +2.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, down from +0.5% previously[3][5]. - The core CPI (excluding food and energy) in February recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, better than the expected 3.2% and down from 3.3% in January, marking the lowest level since May 2021[4][5]. Food and Energy Prices - Food inflation in February was +2.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, while energy prices returned to negative growth at -0.3% year-on-year[5][8]. - Energy prices month-on-month increased by +0.2%, down from +1.1% in January, indicating a significant cooling in energy price growth[5][8]. Core Services and Goods - Core services inflation decreased slightly to 4.1% year-on-year from 4.3% in January, while core goods inflation remained stable at 0.0% year-on-year[6][7]. - The contribution rates to CPI from core services, core goods, food, and energy were +0.153%, +0.042%, +0.022%, and +0.012% respectively on a year-on-year basis[7]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the inflation data, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices saw increases of 1.22% and 0.49% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.2%[4]. Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to remain below 3.0% for the period from March to November 2025, with December's CPI projected at approximately 3.1%[7]. - The probability of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) exceeding 2.5% over the next 12 months is expected to rise from 11.5% in October 2024 to 41.3% in February 2025[7].