美国经济：通胀超预期放缓，但不确定性仍在

Inflation Trends - February CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, down from 3% in January, and the month-on-month growth rate fell from 0.47% to 0.22%, below the market expectation of 0.27%[5] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%, with month-on-month growth dropping from 0.45% to 0.23%, also below the expected 0.28%[5] - The most persistent rent prices have seen their growth rate decline to near 2019 levels over the past three months[1] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased to 72 basis points for the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield slightly declining to below 4.3%[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts in March, May, and June, potentially considering a cut in September or December[1] Economic Uncertainties - Trump's tariff policy introduces medium-term inflation uncertainties, with a projected 10% tariff expected to raise PCE inflation by approximately 0.5 percentage points over the next 12 months[5] - Consumer and business confidence indices have declined due to factors such as mass deportations and government spending cuts, leading to a potential slowdown in economic momentum[5] Core Services and Rent - Core services inflation has shown a mild decline, with transportation service prices significantly impacting the core CPI, dropping from a growth of 1.8% in January to -0.8% in February[5] - Owner's equivalent rent (OER), which accounts for nearly 35% of CPI, has maintained a growth rate of 0.3%, with its annualized growth over the past three months falling to 3.7%[5]