MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 群益证券·2025-03-14 06:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 22 CNY per share [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to record a net profit of between 0.5 billion to 2.5 billion CNY for 2024, a significant decrease from 4.8 billion CNY in the previous year [7]. - The report highlights that while revenue is anticipated to decline due to weak demand, cost pressures are expected to ease, leading to an improvement in gross and operating profit margins [7]. - A substantial impairment loss is projected to impact the company's overall profitability, primarily due to losses from its subsidiary Bellamy's and its joint venture Modern Dairy [7]. - The outlook for 2025 is more optimistic, with expectations of gradual revenue recovery driven by favorable policies and supply-demand improvements in the dairy sector [7]. - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a historical dividend yield of over 2% [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in dairy products, with a market capitalization of 56.43 billion CNY [2]. - The major shareholder is COFCO Group, holding 24.14% of the shares [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 4.809 billion CNY in 2023, with projections of 121 million CNY for 2024, followed by a recovery to 4.405 billion CNY in 2025 and 5.075 billion CNY in 2026 [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to drop to 0.03 CNY in 2024, then rise to 1.12 CNY in 2025 and 1.30 CNY in 2026 [9]. Market Position - The product mix is heavily weighted towards liquid milk (81.18%), with ice cream (7.55%), milk powder (3.66%), cheese (4.73%), and other products making up the remainder [3]. - The stock price has shown a 15.82% increase over the past month, while it has decreased by 1.43% over the past year [2].