美国2月CPI数据点评：关税影响不在于通胀，而在于经济是否会衰退

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. February CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year it rose by 2.8%, against an expectation of 2.9%[4] - Core CPI also rose by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year it increased by 3.1%, compared to an expectation of 3.2%[4] - Energy prices significantly contributed to the decline in both inflation and core inflation, with housing prices contributing nearly half of the total inflation increase[6] Group 2: Tariff Impacts - The primary concern regarding tariffs is not inflation but the risk of economic recession, as tariffs can lead to temporary price increases or permanent cost hikes[7] - Tariffs affect not only import prices but also increase prices of domestic competitors and complementary goods, complicating the assessment of their impact on the economy[7] - A comprehensive tariff strategy raises the likelihood of a global trade war, disrupting global supply chains and potentially doubling the effective tariff costs on certain products[7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The risk of economic recession increases with the breadth of tariffs imposed, as a wider coverage leads to greater negative impacts on the economy[8] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain between 3.7% and 5%, with a low probability of breaching 5% in the short term[8] - The S&P 500 index is currently overvalued by 22% compared to its long-term trend, indicating potential market corrections due to policy uncertainties[10]