资产配置日报：一千个哈姆雷特

Market Performance - On March 13, the stock market showed overall weakness, with major indices declining except for the dividend sector, which rose by 1.01%[2] - The ChiNext Index, Hang Seng Tech, and the STAR 50 fell by 2.11%, 1.67%, and 1.15% respectively, while the CSI 2000 and Wind Micro Index dropped by 1.84% and 0.68%[2] - The total trading volume for the day was 1.65 trillion yuan, a decrease of 772 billion yuan compared to the previous day[6] Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rose by 3.0 basis points and 2.5 basis points to 1.84% and 2.05% respectively[2] - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with initial yield increases followed by a recovery as the market adjusted to liquidity conditions[3] - The market is currently facing a lack of consensus on pricing anchors for long-term bonds, with significant discrepancies in expectations for MLF and OMO rates[4][5] Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals prices strengthened, with Shanghai gold and silver rising by 0.84% and 0.82% respectively, driven by heightened global risk aversion due to tariff measures[2] - Industrial metals like copper saw a price increase of 0.61%, while black commodities showed mixed performance, with rebar and iron ore rising by 1.21% and 0.45%[2] Investor Sentiment - The decline in the equity market is linked to a marginal decrease in risk appetite among leveraged funds, as evidenced by a significant increase in financing balance by 117 billion yuan the previous day[6] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of only 55 billion yuan, a notable decrease from previous high inflows, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards "buying the dip"[7] Future Market Outlook - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with potential scenarios including a breakout above the 5300 level for the Wind All A Index, a downward trend indicating reduced buying sentiment, or continued oscillation within a narrowing range[8]