华润三九：各业务板块稳健增长，期待并购整合进展-20250314

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 27.617 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.368 billion RMB, up 18.05% year-on-year [1]. - The CHC (Consumer Health Care) business showed robust growth with a revenue of 12.48 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 14.13% increase year-on-year [2]. - The prescription drug segment exceeded expectations with a revenue of 6.006 billion RMB, marking a 15.04% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions, with ongoing integration efforts with Kunming Pharmaceutical Group and a planned acquisition of 28% of Tian Shi Li, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7.876 billion RMB, a significant increase of 28.47% year-on-year, although the net profit decreased by 9.39% to 408 million RMB [1]. Operational Analysis - The CHC business's growth is attributed to a diverse product portfolio and improved brand communication strategies despite a challenging retail environment [2]. - The prescription drug segment is anticipated to improve further, with a recovery in sales of traditional Chinese medicine [2]. - The integration with Kunming Pharmaceutical Group is showing positive results, and the acquisition of Tian Shi Li is expected to bolster the company's innovation pipeline [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.789 billion RMB, 4.389 billion RMB, and 5.058 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 15.83%, and 15.26% [2][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.95 RMB, 3.42 RMB, and 3.94 RMB for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [2].