美国2月CPI数据解读：通胀降温，政策不确定性仍存

Inflation Data - The U.S. February CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, below the expected 2.9% and previous value of 3%[10] - Month-on-month CPI growth was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.5%[10] - Core inflation rose by 3.1% year-on-year, also below the expected 3.2% and previous 3.3%[10] Transportation Impact - The decline in airfares by 4% month-on-month contributed approximately 4 basis points downward to the CPI growth rate[13] - The growth rate of motor vehicle insurance also slowed down, impacting the overall CPI[13] Core Services and Housing - Core services inflation is cooling, with housing rent growth down to 4.3% year-on-year from around 6% at the beginning of 2024[16] - Other service prices closely tied to labor costs are also showing a downward trend[16] Trade Policy Concerns - Current market concerns focus on the potential inflationary impact of new tariff policies[18] - Historical data from 2018-2019 indicates that tariffs did not significantly raise overall or core inflation levels[18] Federal Reserve Outlook - Recent economic data opens the possibility for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, but high policy uncertainty suggests a cautious approach in upcoming meetings[21] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will maintain a wait-and-see attitude in the near term[21] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected weakening of the U.S. economic fundamentals, rapid deterioration of the employment market, and potential financial risk events[22]