CHINA RES POWER(00836) 交银国际证券·2025-03-14 08:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion [2][7] - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 23.1, reflecting a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HKD 18.38 [2][7][13] - The adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are due to changes in wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices, with profit estimates reduced by 22% and 21% respectively [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.1 billion, with a slight decrease in operating profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 [6][15] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be HKD 12.7 billion, with a net profit margin of 12.2% [6][15] - The company is projected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40%, with dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.9% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7] Capacity and Sales Forecast - The total installed capacity is expected to increase from 68,507 MW in 2024 to 78,507 MW in 2025, with a significant rise in renewable energy capacity [8] - The total electricity sales volume is projected to grow from 207,638 GWh in 2024 to 223,796 GWh in 2025 [8] Valuation Summary - The valuation for the thermal power segment is based on a 0.7x 2025E P/B ratio, while the renewable energy segment is valued at 8.0x 2025E P/E [9] - The total estimated value of the company is HKD 119.6 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 23.10 [9]