电改下半场开启：投资理性化，电源市场化，电价现货化 [Table_Industry] ——行业专题研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 21 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业专题研究（普通） Table_ReportType] 电电力行业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 本期内容提要: [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 电力行业投资与装机情况： ummary] ] 电源投资逐步理性，2025 年装机或已达 峰。从电源投资额情况来看，"十四五"后半程新能源投资出现明显 降温，同时火电逐步步入投资高峰。受年初"136"号文出台影响，虽 然风电投资仍好于光伏投资，但整体新能源投资出现明显降温。火电 投资仍保持一定的可观增速，我们预计火电投资随装机投建进度有望 于 2026 年达峰。从分月装机情况看，新能源"531"前后差别较大， 装机节奏或逐步回归理性。"136"号文对于新能源存量项目和增量项 目提出差别较为明显的"保底待遇"，因而导致 25 年上半年出现新能源 项目抢装"531"的热潮，6-11 月新能源装机环比上半年"抢装潮"和同比 24 年数据均出现明显下行。但 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，将华润电力(00836)2026及27年每股盈利预测，分别由3.49 及3.58港元，下调至2.98及3.08港元，以反映该年度电价较低;因估值延伸至2026年，按市盈率8倍计 算，目标价由23.7港元微升至23.8港元。该行维持"增持"评级，因公司的燃煤及风电项目的利用时数优 于同业，反映资产质素较佳。虽然公司在2025年可能面对较同业更大的电价下调压力，但其股息收益率 仍较同业更具保障，对投资者而言具吸引力。 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，将华润电力(00836)2026及27年每股盈利预测，分别由3.49及3.58港元，下调至 2.98及3.08港元，以反映该年度电价较低;因估值延伸至2026年，按市盈率8倍计算，目标价由23.7港元 微升至23.8港元。该行维持"增持"评级，因公司的燃煤及风电项目的利用时数优于同业，反映资产质素 较佳。虽然公司在2025年可能面对较同业更大的电价下调压力，但其股息收益率仍较同业更具保障，对 投资者而言具吸引力。 ...

摩根士丹利将华润电力2026及27年每股盈利预测，分别由3.49及3.58元下调至2.98及3.08元，以反映该年 度电价较低。因估值延伸至2026年，按市盈率8倍计算，该行将其目标价由23.7港元微升至23.8港元，维 持"增持"评级，因公司的燃煤及风电项目的利用时数优于同业，反映资产质素较佳。虽然公司在2025年 可能面对较同业更大的电价下调压力，但其股息收益率仍较同业更具保障，对投资者而言具吸引力。 ...

Group 1: Emotional Economy and New Consumption Trends - The emotional economy in China is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in market size by 2024, with a projected CAGR of 21% from 2025 to 2030 for the trendy toy economy [2][7] - The pet economy is anticipated to surpass 1 trillion yuan by 2027, driven by emotional attachment and companionship needs [2][9] - The fragrance economy is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15% from 2018 to 2024, with emotional benefits outweighing functional needs [2][10] Group 2: Egg Processing Industry - The egg processing market in China is expected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7% [2][12] - The current processing ratio of eggs in China is only 5%-7%, compared to 50% in Japan, indicating significant growth potential [2][12] - Euf Egg Industry, a leading company in the egg processing sector, reported a revenue of 674 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a net profit of 66.13 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.77% [2][12] Group 3: Real Estate Market Developments - Recent policies include the extension of personal income tax incentives for housing purchases and a reduction in the down payment ratio for commercial properties to 30% [2][19] - In the week of January 10-16, new home transactions in 42 key cities increased by 6.3% compared to the previous week, while second-hand home transactions rose by 4.9% [2][18] - The real estate sector has seen a decline of 3.5% in the week, with significant fluctuations in individual stock performances [2][17] Group 4: Power Generation and Renewable Energy - China Resources Power reported a 7% year-on-year increase in electricity sales, reaching 226.8 billion kWh in 2025 [2][23] - The company expects significant growth in renewable energy installations, with a target of 10 GW for 2025, which will enhance its performance during industry downturns [2][26] - The anticipated decline in coal prices and the introduction of new market mechanisms may create challenges for the power sector in 2026 [2][25]

华源证券发布研报称，维持华润电力(00836)"买入"评级。华润电力2025年前三季度受益于煤价高位回 落，火电子公司业绩实现高增长。尽管2026年因年度电价下滑与电力现货市场推行等因素，但公司凭 借"重负荷"开发策略、优秀运营能力及新能源机组投产，有望增强业绩韧性。同时，集团"十五五"强调 高质量发展，新能源业务分拆上市如成功，将显著缓解资本压力，支撑长期转型。 在电力供需边际宽松、煤价下跌(2025年)的情况下，预计多省2026年度电价有所下滑，同时年度交易比 例大幅下降。除以上合理的市场化因素，2026年度交易电价的下滑或与1)容量电价提升，2)现货市场的 推广，3)售电公司的过度竞争三方面非常态因素有关。 在理性与非理性的交织下，2026年年度电价获得一个并不乐观的结果，预计在2026年煤价无较大下降空 间的情况下，点火价差的下降或致火电利润承压。同时，即便136号文已对存量新能源提供较多保护， 但在电力现货市场中，其交易电价与弃电量仍将迎来大考。该行认为，公司历史上"重负荷"的开发战略 或为其新能源入市提供相对优势。2026年或为电力市场最为混沌的一年，公司优秀的管理机制与运营能 力或是其穿越周期的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities maintains a "buy" rating for China Resources Power (00836), highlighting strong performance growth in the first three quarters of 2025 due to a decline in coal prices, despite anticipated challenges in 2026 from falling annual electricity prices and the implementation of the electricity spot market [1] Group 1: Performance and Growth - The company's subsidiary, China Resources Power Investment Co., reported a 31.71% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, significantly up from a 3.99% growth in the first half of 2025 [1] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 77.89%, driven by a 4.7% year-on-year increase in electricity sales from thermal power [1][2] - The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (5500 kcal) in 2025 is expected to be 697 RMB/ton, down 158 RMB/ton or 18% year-on-year, contributing to stable annual performance [2] Group 2: Future Outlook and Strategy - The company anticipates a challenging year in 2026 due to expected declines in annual electricity prices and increased competition in the electricity market, influenced by factors such as capacity price increases and the promotion of the spot market [3] - The company’s historical "heavy load" development strategy is expected to provide a relative advantage for its new energy market entry, which is crucial for navigating the anticipated market chaos in 2026 [3] - The company aims to add 10 GW of new energy capacity in 2025, with 7 GW of new coal power rights, enhancing its resilience during industry downturns [4] - The successful spin-off of the new energy business for listing is projected to raise 24.5 billion RMB, significantly alleviating capital expenditure pressures for China Resources Power [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, recommending various companies within these industries for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kWh in 2025, reaching 10.4 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [7][8]. - The growth in electricity consumption is driven primarily by the secondary and tertiary industries, which together contribute nearly 80% of the total increase in electricity demand [8]. - The report notes significant growth in electricity consumption from high-end manufacturing, digital economy, and new infrastructure projects, such as charging stations and 5G base stations, which are expected to see growth rates exceeding 30% [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Sector - In 2025, the total electricity consumption is expected to reach 10.4 trillion kWh, with a 5% year-on-year increase. The first, second, and third industries, along with urban and rural residential electricity consumption, are projected to grow by 9.9%, 3.7%, 8.2%, and 6.3% respectively [7][9]. - The second industry remains the largest consumer of electricity, contributing 48% to the growth, while the third industry contributes 31% [9][13]. - The report recommends investments in coal-fired power companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, as well as large hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment [15][16]. 2. Gas Sector - The report indicates that colder temperatures are expected to increase heating demand, leading to a rebound in gas prices across Europe and Asia. As of January 16, the Henry Hub spot price was $3.06/mmBtu, with a weekly increase of 6.77% [17][24]. - The report highlights that European gas prices have surged due to low inventory levels and increased heating demand, with the TTF spot price reaching €38.10/MWh, up 31.38% week-on-week [17][24]. - Recommendations include investing in integrated gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as well as gas trading companies like New Hope and New Energy [38]. 3. Market Performance - The report notes that the public utility, power, and environmental sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 12 to January 16, 2026 [40]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent initiatives in various provinces aim to enhance green energy and environmental standards, including the establishment of green mining standards in Guangxi and guidelines for industrial microgrid construction [46][47]. - The report also mentions significant corporate announcements, including mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector, which may impact market dynamics [50].

本文源自：金融界AI电报 华润电力(00836.HK)公告，二零二五年十二月附属电厂售电量达到21,921,954兆瓦时，同比增加了 6.6%，其中，附属风电场售电量达到5,361,475兆瓦时，同比增加了21.6%；附属光伏电站售电量达到 1,150,980兆瓦时，同比增加了58.0%。二零二五年附属电厂累计售电量达到226,789,826兆瓦时，同比增 加了7.0%，其中，附属风电场累计售电量达到53,702,309兆瓦时，同比增加了16.4%；附属光伏电站累 计售电量达到13,202,002兆瓦时，同比增加了55.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Power (00836) reported a significant increase in electricity sales from its subsidiaries for December 2025, indicating strong growth in renewable energy sectors, particularly wind and solar power [1] Group 1: Electricity Sales Performance - The electricity sales volume from subsidiaries reached 21.9222 million megawatt-hours in December 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [1] - The subsidiary wind farms achieved sales of 5.3615 million megawatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [1] - The subsidiary solar power stations recorded sales of 1.151 million megawatt-hours, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 58.0% [1] Group 2: Cumulative Electricity Sales - The total cumulative electricity sales from subsidiaries for 2025 reached 227 million megawatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [1] - Cumulative sales from subsidiary wind farms amounted to 53.7023 million megawatt-hours, which is a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [1] - Cumulative sales from subsidiary solar power stations reached 13.202 million megawatt-hours, indicating a year-on-year increase of 55.5% [1]