| 股票名称 | 沽空金额↓ | 沽空比率 | 偏离值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪股份(01211) | 18.96 亿元 | 32.00% | 11.04% | | 美团-W(03690) | 14.39 亿元 | 27.80% | 10.96% | | 小米集团-W(01810) | 9.65 亿元 | 15.05% | -4.74% | | 百度集团-SW(09888) | 9.52 亿元 | 35.41% | 9.84% | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 9.25 亿元 | 5.61% | -7.36% | | 中国平安(02318) | 7.77 亿元 | 18.34% | -8.82% | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 7.68 亿元 | 4.61% | -4.56% | | 小鹏汽车-W(09868) | 7.58 亿元 | 26.66% | 3.02% | | 紫金矿业(02899) | 7.46 亿元 | 10.37% | -7.51% | | 友邦保险(01299) | 6.03 亿元 | 18.73% | -3.00% | 智通财经APP获 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting stable revenue mechanisms and growth potential in consumption and pricing [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a refined capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and ensure fair compensation for various power sources [4][6]. - It notes that natural gas consumption is expected to grow, supported by favorable weather conditions and improved economic indicators, despite short-term price fluctuations [10][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Improved Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new power system [4]. - The new mechanism aims to ensure that different types of power generation, including coal, gas, and new energy sources, receive fair compensation based on their peak supply capabilities [6][7]. - The report highlights that the refined pricing structure will lead to more predictable revenue for power generation companies, reducing volatility in earnings [7]. 2. Natural Gas: Continued Growth in Consumption - The report indicates that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China is projected to grow by 0.1% in 2025, with December consumption reaching 38.57 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [29]. - It notes that the recent cold weather has supported high natural gas prices, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $7.18/mmBtu, while European prices remain elevated due to low inventory levels and geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The report suggests that the natural gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved pricing mechanisms, leading to a recovery in profitability for city gas companies [31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal-fired power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their stable revenue sources [8]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are highlighted for their potential to improve profit margins through reduced capital expenditures [8]. - In the nuclear sector, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested for their growth potential as new units are approved [8]. - The report also recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies like ENN Energy and China Gas Holdings, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and increased sales [31].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年1月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 華潤電力控股有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年2月2日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 1. 股份分類 普通股 股份類別 不適用 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) 是 證券代號 (如上市) 00836 說明 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 庫存股份數目 已發行股份總數 上月底結存 5,177,057,740 0 5,177,057,740 增加 / 減少 (-) 0 本月底結存 5,177,057,740 0 5,177,057,740 足夠公眾持股量的確認(註4) | 根據《主板上市規則》第13.32D(1)條或第19A.28D(1)條 / 《GEM上市規則》第17.37D(1)條或第25.21D(1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to policy improvements and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent improvements in the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and enhance the profitability of various power sources [6][10]. - It notes a slight increase in natural gas consumption in 2025, with a projected growth of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand outlook for the gas sector [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Capacity Pricing Mechanism Improvement - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new energy system [6]. - The new mechanism introduces differentiated pricing for various types of regulatory power sources, ensuring that their capacity value is adequately compensated [7]. - A unified compensation standard for peak capacity across different power sources is established, promoting rational investment and resource allocation in the power sector [8][10]. 2. Gas Sector: Continued Growth in Natural Gas Consumption - Natural gas consumption in China is expected to reach 385.7 billion cubic meters by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [32]. - The report emphasizes the impact of cold weather on gas prices, with global prices remaining high, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which supports the profitability of gas companies [13][19]. - The report suggests that the gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved demand, particularly for city gas companies, with recommendations for several key players in the market [34]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the public utility, power, gas, and environmental sectors underperformed relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 24 to January 30, 2026 [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with significant growth in solar and wind power installations [43]. - The report includes various company announcements, highlighting performance forecasts and operational updates from key players in the energy sector [44].

摩根大通发表报告，对中国火电公用事业转为更谨慎的看法，并将华润电力的评级从"增持"下调至"中 性"，目标价由21.5港元降至17港元；维持对华能国际电力的"减持"评级，H股目标价由4.85港元降至4.5 港元。该行认为，取消电价下限可能导致2027年预期起的火电上网电价进一步下行，从而压缩该行所覆 盖公司的利润率。虽然政府同时提到将完善容量电价机制，但该机制的力度、实施时点，以及是否足以 抵消基本电价的下行，仍存在较大不确定性。因此，火电厂盈利前景变得不利，预计市场盈利预测与股 息预测均面临下行风险。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decline in power stocks, with Huaneng International (00902) down 5.26% to HKD 5.4, China Resources Power (00836) down 3.48% to HKD 17.18, and Huadian International (01071) down 2.91% to HKD 4.01 [1][1][1] Group 2 - On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which includes optimizing the electricity market mechanism [1] - According to CITIC Securities, the notice clarifies that after the improvement of the coal power capacity pricing mechanism, local areas can adjust the lower limit of medium- and long-term market trading prices for coal power based on supply and demand and the variable costs of all participating units [1] - The notice encourages flexible pricing mechanisms between supply and demand parties, which may lead to a further decline in the price center of electricity in some provinces [1]

Core Viewpoint - Power stocks are experiencing a decline, with major companies like Huaneng International, China Resources Power, and Huadian International seeing significant drops in their stock prices due to regulatory changes in the electricity pricing mechanism [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Huaneng International (600011)(00902) fell by 5.26%, trading at 5.4 HKD [1] - China Resources Power (00836) decreased by 3.48%, trading at 17.18 HKD [1] - Huadian International (600027)(01071) dropped by 2.91%, trading at 4.01 HKD [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation [1] - The notice specifies that the coal power capacity pricing mechanism will be refined, allowing local adjustments to the long-term market trading price floor based on supply and demand and operational costs [1] - The notice encourages flexible pricing mechanisms between supply and demand parties, which may lead to a further decrease in electricity price levels in some provinces [1]

Core Viewpoint - The power sector is experiencing a decline, with major companies like Huaneng International, China Resources Power, and Huadian International seeing significant drops in their stock prices following the announcement of a new pricing mechanism for power generation capacity by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Huaneng International (00902) fell by 5.26%, trading at 5.4 HKD [1] - China Resources Power (00836) decreased by 3.48%, trading at 17.18 HKD [1] - Huadian International (01071) dropped by 2.91%, trading at 4.01 HKD [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation [1] - The notice includes provisions for optimizing the pricing mechanisms for coal, natural gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage [1] Group 3: Market Implications - According to CITIC Securities, the notice allows localities to adjust the lower limit of long-term market trading prices for coal power based on supply and demand and the variable costs of all participating units [1] - The notice encourages flexible pricing mechanisms between supply and demand parties, which may lead to a further decline in the price center for coal power in some provinces [1]

行业研究丨深度报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 容量电价，因何而来？向何处去？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长期以来，由于定价机制的差异，导致长协趋于现货的"电价平权"现象成为火电成本回收的 重要矛盾，其背后在于容量电价对固定成本的回收长期未能实现破局。我们测算可靠容量补偿 机制执行后，纵使在供需矛盾较为突出的广东省，火电电量电价按照现货价格结算仍可盈利， 即长协与现货的双轨制矛盾正式将迎刃而解，长协将不再承担过多固定成本回收压力。我们认 为，若可靠性容量补偿机制全国推广，长协与现货的鸿沟将基本被熨平，电力市场机制将得到 理顺，各类电源商业模式也将趋于完善。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SFC：BQT627 刘亚辉 张子淳 SAC：S0490523080003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 27 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the power generation sector, including Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and China Power Investment, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism for power generation, aimed at addressing the challenges of the new energy transition and ensuring the development of regulating power sources [1]. - The notification highlights the need for a balanced approach to "new energy consumption, power security, and regulating power source profitability," which is crucial for the construction of a new power system [1]. - The report emphasizes the differentiated optimization of capacity pricing for four types of regulating power sources, including independent new energy storage and pumped storage, to ensure fair competition and adequate compensation for capacity [1]. Summary by Sections Capacity Price Mechanism - The notification introduces a differentiated capacity pricing mechanism for various regulating power sources, allowing local authorities to set prices based on factors such as coal power capacity standards and peak contribution [1]. - The policy aims to ensure that the capacity value of regulating power sources is adequately recognized and compensated, addressing previous issues of insufficient cost coverage [1]. Unified Compensation Mechanism - A key breakthrough in the notification is the establishment of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism that standardizes compensation across different types of power generation units, promoting rational investment and resource allocation [1]. - This mechanism aims to avoid inefficient resource allocation by linking compensation to the actual contribution of each unit to the power system [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment based on their integrated operations and stable profit potential, including Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Huaneng [1]. - It also highlights the potential for hydropower companies to benefit from increased output and stable dividends, recommending companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment [1].