BOC AVIATION(HK:02588)2025-03-14 08:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings Limited (02588) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of USD 2.56 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of USD 924 million, up 21% year-on-year, marking a historical high [3] - The core net profit, excluding the impact of the write-down of Russian aircraft, was USD 633 million, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase [3] - The company faces challenges in aircraft delivery due to supply chain issues, which may affect core rental income [4] - The aviation industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with a projected CAGR of 5.1% for passenger demand in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 20 years, significantly higher than North America and Europe [4] - The company benefits from a young fleet and a favorable remaining lease term compared to peers, positioning it well to capitalize on growth in the Asia-Pacific aviation market [4] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenues to grow from USD 2.46 billion in 2023 to USD 2.82 billion by 2027, with a projected net profit of USD 671 million in 2025, increasing to USD 754 million by 2027 [4][5] - The financial cost is projected to be 4.5% in 2024, with a slight increase in new bond issuance costs due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [4] - The company’s net asset return is expected to remain strong, with a projected return on equity of 10.2% from 2025 to 2027 [4]