佐力药业：受益于集采以价换量业绩表现亮眼，百令胶囊成功上市-20250314

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhaoli Pharmaceutical (300181) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical's performance is significantly benefiting from the collective procurement strategy, which has led to impressive results. The successful launch of the Bailin capsule is also a key highlight [1][7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.58 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 505 million yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see a net profit of 180 to 190 million yuan, indicating a growth of 25.0% to 32.7% year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 1,942.44 million yuan - 2024E: 2,579.75 million yuan (growth rate: 32.81%) - 2025E: 3,431.07 million yuan (growth rate: 33.00%) - 2026E: 4,597.63 million yuan (growth rate: 34.00%) [2][8] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 382.94 million yuan - 2024E: 504.68 million yuan (growth rate: 31.79%) - 2025E: 668.98 million yuan (growth rate: 32.56%) - 2026E: 901.32 million yuan (growth rate: 34.73%) [2][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.55 yuan - 2024E: 0.72 yuan - 2025E: 0.95 yuan - 2026E: 1.29 yuan [2][8] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 14.09% - 2024E: 16.68% - 2025E: 19.13% - 2026E: 21.74% [2][8] - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2023A: 28 - 2024E: 21 - 2025E: 16 - 2026E: 12 [2][8] Product Performance - Wuling Capsule: - The core product, Wuling Capsule, has seen a revenue of 1.44 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1%. Sales volume and revenue increased by 22.6% and 15.96% respectively [7]. - Bailin Products: - The Bailin tablet generated 190 million yuan in sales, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year, but the sales volume increased by 15.25%. The Bailin capsule was successfully launched in December 2024, with expectations for market expansion [7]. Cost Management - The company has shown continuous improvement in its expense ratio, which was 39.4% for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the mid-year report [7].