挚文集团：维持稳定股东回馈，关注海外业务增长-20250315

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to $7.20, down from$7.40, indicating a potential upside of 0.4% [1][19][22]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at RMB 10,015 million, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1,239 million due to increased overseas product investments [1][6][24]. - The company has announced a special dividend of $0.30 per ADS, representing a payout ratio of 29$200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2,636 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, while the adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94 million [6][16]. - The adjusted gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 36.2%, reflecting a decline due to changes in revenue structure and increased operational costs [5][17]. - The company’s market capitalization is $1.2 billion, which is lower than its net cash of$1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 10,015 million, with MOMO expected to contribute RMB 9,328 million and Tantan RMB 683 million. The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 1,239 million [5][17]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in revenue for Tantan, with a year-on-year decrease of 20% expected in Q1 2025 [6][17]. Market Position and Trends - The company is experiencing pressure on its main platform and Tantan due to reduced user engagement and a soft social consumption sentiment, leading to a decrease in paid users by 1.2 million [6][16]. - New application revenues have increased by 37% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the overseas social product Soulchill [6][16].