Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" [4][7][14] Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 2.64 billion RMB for Q4 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 12.2%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations of 2.60 billion RMB [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit was 280 million RMB, slightly below the consensus estimate of 302 million RMB, with a corresponding profit margin of 10.62% [1] - The company is focusing on transforming its core business while maintaining positive operating cash flow, highlighting its "cash cow" asset characteristics [1][4] - The company has a strong cash position with total cash and cash equivalents reaching 14.7 billion RMB (approximately 1.45 billion USD) at year-end [3] Revenue and User Metrics - The Momo business generated revenue of 2.423 billion RMB in Q4 2024, down 11% year-over-year, with a paid user count of 5.7 million, a decrease of 23% [2] - The company is shifting towards a profit-centered ROI-driven strategy, effectively reducing customer acquisition costs [2] - The Tantan business reported revenue of 213 million RMB in Q4 2024, down 21.6% year-over-year, with a paid user count of 900,000, a decrease of 25% [2] Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - The company announced a special cash dividend of approximately 50 million USD to be distributed on April 30, 2025, and has a remaining stock buyback plan of 222 million USD [3] - The potential return rate from dividends and buybacks is estimated at 22.67% based on the market capitalization of approximately 1.2 billion USD as of March 17 [3] - The company has adjusted its Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.32 billion RMB, 1.39 billion RMB, and 1.46 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 30% for 2025 and 2026 [4][12] Valuation Analysis - The target price for the company is set at 11.69 USD, based on a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 16.88% [4][14] - The current market capitalization is significantly below the book net cash, indicating potential undervaluation and room for valuation recovery [4][14]

Core Viewpoint - Hello Group Inc. is experiencing a significant decline in its domestic business, prompting a strategic pivot towards international markets to seek growth opportunities [2][4][12]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan ($359 million) for the fourth quarter, down 12% year-over-year, marking a continued decline since 2020 [5]. - Net income for the fourth quarter fell 59% to 187.2 million yuan from 452.5 million yuan a year earlier, with a nearly 50% drop for the entire year to 1 billion yuan [6]. - Livestreaming revenue decreased by 16% year-over-year to 5.1 billion yuan in 2024, now accounting for 48% of total revenue, down from 80% in previous years [11]. User Metrics - Tantan's monthly active users decreased by 2.9 million to 10.8 million, while Momo's paying users dropped from 7.4 million to 5.7 million year-over-year [9]. - The decline in paying users is attributed to a regulatory crackdown and increased competition from other platforms [10][12]. International Expansion Strategy - The company aims for overseas revenue growth of up to 100% this year, with a focus on its Soulchill app targeting Middle Eastern markets [7][12]. - New apps launched in late 2023, including Yaahlan and AMAR, are generating stable returns despite initial marketing costs [14]. - CFO Peng Hui projects overseas revenue to grow from 1 billion yuan in 2024 to between 1.7 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan in 2025 [15]. Market Challenges - The company faces competition in the Middle East from other Chinese social media companies and must navigate potential instability in the region [16]. - Entering competitive Western markets may lead to increased marketing costs and challenges against established players [17]. Investor Sentiment - Following the earnings release, Hello Group's shares fell 8%, indicating investor skepticism regarding the sustainability of its domestic services and the capital needed for international expansion [19]. - Despite a 12% increase in stock price over the last six months, it lags behind the 45% rally of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, reflecting doubts about the company's turnaround strategy [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to $7.20, down from $7.40, indicating a potential upside of 0.4% [1][19][22]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at RMB 10,015 million, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1,239 million due to increased overseas product investments [1][6][24]. - The company has announced a special dividend of $0.30 per ADS, representing a payout ratio of 29% and a dividend yield of 4%. Additionally, the share repurchase program has been extended to March 31, 2027, with an increased buyback amount of $200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2,636 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, while the adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94 million [6][16]. - The adjusted gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 36.2%, reflecting a decline due to changes in revenue structure and increased operational costs [5][17]. - The company’s market capitalization is $1.2 billion, which is lower than its net cash of $1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 10,015 million, with MOMO expected to contribute RMB 9,328 million and Tantan RMB 683 million. The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 1,239 million [5][17]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in revenue for Tantan, with a year-on-year decrease of 20% expected in Q1 2025 [6][17]. Market Position and Trends - The company is experiencing pressure on its main platform and Tantan due to reduced user engagement and a soft social consumption sentiment, leading to a decrease in paid users by 1.2 million [6][16]. - New application revenues have increased by 37% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the overseas social product Soulchill [6][16].

Core Insights - Hello Group (NASDAQ: MOMO) reported Q4 earnings, missing EPS estimates by $0.05 on a GAAP basis and $0.07 on a non-GAAP basis while beating revenue estimates [1] Financial Performance - EPS missed estimates by $0.05 on a GAAP basis and $0.07 on a non-GAAP basis [1] - Revenue estimates were exceeded, indicating a positive performance in terms of sales despite the EPS miss [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to $7.20, reflecting a potential upside of 0.4% from the current price of $7.17 [1][19][22]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at RMB 10,015 million, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1,239 million due to increased overseas product investments [1][6][24]. - The company announced a special dividend of $0.30 per ADS, representing a payout ratio of 29% and a dividend yield of 4%. Additionally, the share repurchase program has been extended to March 31, 2027, with an increased buyback amount of $200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2,636 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94 million [6][16]. - The adjusted gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 36%, reflecting a decline due to changes in revenue structure and increased operational costs [6][17]. - The company’s market capitalization is $1.2 billion, which is lower than its net cash of $1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][4]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The revenue forecast for 2025 is maintained at RMB 10,015 million, with adjusted net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 at RMB 1,239 million and RMB 1,354 million, respectively [5][17]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1,217 million, with an operating profit margin of 12.2% [5][17]. Market Context - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 7%, with a 52-week high of $8.15 and a low of $4.84 [4][24]. - The company’s main platform, Momo, and its subsidiary, Tantan, continue to face challenges due to reduced user engagement and competition in the social networking space [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to $7.20 from $7.40, indicating a potential upside of 0.4% [1][2][19]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1.24 billion due to increased investment in potential new overseas products [1][6]. - The company has announced a special dividend of $0.30 per ADS, with a payout ratio of 29% and a dividend yield of 4%. Additionally, the share repurchase program has been extended to March 31, 2027, with an increased buyback amount of $200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, while the adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94.1 million [6][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 12%, a decline of 5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increased proportion of revenue from new overseas applications and rising operational costs [6][16]. - The company expects a 4% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q1 2025, with the main platform's live streaming business under pressure [6][17]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 10.015 billion, with the main platform MOMO expected to generate RMB 9.328 billion and Tantan projected at RMB 683 million [5][17]. - The adjusted gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 3.630 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 36.2% [5][17]. - The adjusted operating profit is forecasted to be RMB 1.217 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 12.2% [5][17]. Market Position and Valuation - The company's market capitalization is $1.2 billion, which is lower than its net cash of $1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][6]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $8.15 and a low of $4.84, with a year-to-date change of -7% [4][19].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, total group revenue was RMB2.64 billion, down 12% year-over-year. Adjusted operating income was RMB280 million, with a margin of 10.6% [9][51]. - For fiscal 2024, total group revenue was RMB10.6 billion, compared to RMB12 billion in the previous year. Adjusted operating income was RMB1.173 billion with a margin of 16.3% [12][13]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the Momo app and standalone new apps totaled RMB2.42 billion, down 11% year-over-year, with Momo app revenue decreasing by 18% [10][13]. - Tantan's Q4 revenue totaled RMB213 million, down 22% year-over-year due to a decrease in paying users [12][34]. - Revenue from value-added services (VAS), excluding Tantan, totaled RMB1.2 billion in Q4, down 5% year-over-year [26][55]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overseas business maintained robust growth, contributing significantly to the group's financial standing [8]. - The Momo app had 5.7 million paying users, a sequential decrease of 1.2 million due to cost reduction strategies [22]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain the productivity of the Momo app while focusing on improving user experience and optimizing operational efficiency [15][48]. - For Tantan, the strategic goal is to reduce costs and improve efficiency while exploring dating experiences suitable for agents [48][110]. - The company plans to increase investments in overseas markets, particularly in the MENA region, to drive growth and innovation [41][104]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by the macroeconomic environment and regulatory changes but expressed confidence in the resilience of the Momo platform [80][83]. - The company expects a revenue decline in Q1 2025 but anticipates a slight rebound in Q2, depending on macroeconomic conditions [68][86]. Other Important Information - The Board approved a special cash dividend of $0.30 per ADS, totaling approximately $50 million, marking the seventh consecutive year of cash dividends [49]. - The company is focusing on optimizing headcount and improving marketing efficiency to absorb top-line pressure while reallocating resources to overseas business [88]. Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What caused the significant drop in paying users for the Momo app? - Management indicated that the drop was due to a strategic shift away from acquiring low-return paying users, which has historically pressured profitability [74][76]. Question: What adjustments have been made to live streaming and VAS products? - Management stated that after improving Momo's content, no further changes to reduce earnings are planned, focusing instead on adding engaging features [77]. Question: What is the outlook for Tantan's revenue and profit in 2025? - Management expects a revenue decline of 20% to 30% year-over-year for Tantan in 2025, but profitability is anticipated to improve due to better ROI from reduced marketing spend [120].

Company Performance - Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) reported quarterly earnings of $0.18 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.21 per share, and down from $0.37 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -14.29% [1] - The company posted revenues of $361.2 million for the quarter ended December 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.06%, and down from $422.95 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Market Outlook - Momo shares have lost about 3.8% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's decline of -5.3% [3] - The company's earnings outlook, including current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarters, will be crucial for investors [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.24 on revenues of $319.48 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.82 on revenues of $1.38 billion [7] Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry, to which Momo belongs, is currently in the top 33% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact Momo's stock performance [5] - The current estimate revisions trend for Momo is mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6]

Core Viewpoint - Hello Group Inc. reported its unaudited financial results for Q4 and the full year of 2024, highlighting challenges and opportunities faced during the year, with a focus on the performance of its Momo and Tantan segments and plans for future growth and innovation in international markets [3][4]. Q4 2024 Highlights - Total net revenues for Q4 2024 were RMB2,636.5 million (US$361.2 million), a decrease of 12.2% from RMB3,002.9 million in Q4 2023 [4][15]. - Live video service revenues decreased by 17.0% to RMB1,264.9 million (US$173.3 million) due to operational adjustments and soft consumer sentiment [5]. - Value-added service revenues fell by 6.9% to RMB1,326.8 million (US$181.8 million), impacted by product adjustments and a decline in Tantan's paying users [6]. - Net income attributable to Hello Group Inc. was RMB187.2 million (US$25.6 million), down from RMB452.5 million in Q4 2023 [15][19]. - Monthly Active Users (MAU) on Tantan app decreased to 10.8 million in December 2024 from 13.7 million in December 2023 [15]. Full Year 2024 Highlights - Full year net revenues were RMB10,563.0 million (US$1,447.1 million), a decrease of 12.0% from RMB12,002.3 million in 2023 [22][23]. - Net income attributable to Hello Group Inc. for the full year was RMB1,039.6 million (US$142.4 million), compared to RMB1,957.6 million in 2023 [22]. - Non-GAAP net income for the full year was RMB1,232.9 million (US$168.9 million), down from RMB2,224.7 million in 2023 [23]. Cash and Cash Flow - As of December 31, 2024, the Company had cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB14,728.5 million (US$2,017.8 million), an increase from RMB13,478.5 million as of December 31, 2023 [21]. - Net cash provided by operating activities in Q4 2024 was RMB423.6 million (US$58.0 million), compared to RMB415.9 million in Q4 2023 [21]. Recent Developments - The board of directors declared a special cash dividend of US$0.30 per ADS, totaling approximately US$50 million, to be paid on April 30, 2025 [25]. - The Share Repurchase Program was amended to increase the total authorization to US$486.1 million, with a remaining size of US$222 million as of March 12, 2025 [26][27]. Business Outlook - For Q1 2025, the Company expects total net revenues to be between RMB2.4 billion to RMB2.5 billion, representing a decrease of 6.3% to 2.4% year over year [28].

Core Viewpoint - Hello Group Inc. is set to release its unaudited financial results for Q4 and the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, on March 12, 2025, before U.S. markets open [1] Group 1: Financial Results Announcement - The unaudited financial results will be announced before U.S. markets open on March 12, 2025 [1] - An earnings conference call will be held on the same day at 8:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time [2] - Participants can preregister for the conference call through a provided link and will receive details including dial-in numbers and a unique access PIN [3] Group 2: Conference Call Details - A telephone replay of the conference call will be available until March 19, 2025, with specific dial-in details provided [4] - A live and archived webcast of the conference call will be accessible on the Investor Relations section of Hello Group's website [4] Group 3: Company Overview - Hello Group Inc. is a leading player in mainland China's online social networking space, operating applications like Momo and Tantan [5] - Momo facilitates social interactions based on location and interests, while Tantan focuses on romantic connections [5] - The company has also incubated several new apps targeting niche markets since 2019 [5]