佐力药业：受益于集采以价换量业绩表现亮眼，百令胶囊成功上市-20250315

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance due to the benefits from centralized procurement, leading to increased sales volume. The successful launch of the Bailin capsule is also a significant milestone [1]. - For the year 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.58 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 505 million yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year [7]. - The core product, Wuling capsule, has maintained a strong market position, with revenue growth driven by expansion into new provinces and increased sales volume [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 1,942.44 million yuan - 2024E: 2,579.75 million yuan (growth rate: 32.81%) - 2025E: 3,431.07 million yuan (growth rate: 33.00%) - 2026E: 4,597.63 million yuan (growth rate: 34.00%) [2]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 382.94 million yuan - 2024E: 504.68 million yuan (growth rate: 31.79%) - 2025E: 668.98 million yuan (growth rate: 32.56%) - 2026E: 901.32 million yuan (growth rate: 34.73%) [2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.55 yuan - 2024E: 0.72 yuan - 2025E: 0.95 yuan - 2026E: 1.29 yuan [2]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 14.09% - 2024E: 16.68% - 2025E: 19.13% - 2026E: 21.74% [2]. - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2023A: 28 - 2024E: 21 - 2025E: 16 - 2026E: 12 [2]. Product Performance - Wuling Capsule: - Revenue for the Wuling series in 2024 reached 1.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1%. The sales volume and revenue of Wuling capsules increased by 22.6% and 15.96% respectively [7]. - Bailin Products: - The Bailin tablet generated sales revenue of 190 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year, primarily due to price impacts from centralized procurement [7]. Cost Management - The company has effectively managed its expenses, with a cost ratio of 39.4% in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the mid-year report [7].