PAB(SZ:000001) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-03-15 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue decline has narrowed, and the bad debt generation has shown a downward turning point [1] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to decrease by 4.2% year-on-year, with revenue declining by 10.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio at the end of 2024 is 1.06%, remaining stable compared to the end of Q3 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 251% [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Ping An Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 4.2%, while revenue is expected to decrease by 10.9%, a reduction of 1.6 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - Other non-interest income has increased significantly by 68.7% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the bond market in Q4 [2] - The bank's net interest margin for Q4 2024 is 1.70%, a decrease of 17 basis points from Q3 2024, primarily due to a decline in asset yields [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio, attention loan ratio, and overdue loan ratio at the end of Q4 2024 are stable at 1.06%, 1.93%, and 1.52%, respectively, indicating an improvement in asset quality [4] - The real non-performing loan generation rate has improved by 12 basis points to 2.53%, suggesting that the pressure on bad debt generation has peaked and is now declining [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 is -1.11%, 5.07%, and 5.36%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 23.37, 24.97, and 26.69 yuan [5] - The target price is maintained at 14.00 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.60x for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price [5]