qscc(600425) 天风证券·2025-03-16 02:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 4.83 CNY, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 4.33 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 3.60% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 354 million CNY, down 23.68% year-on-year [1][4]. - The cement business remained stable in terms of volume and price, while the chemical segment continued to be a drag on overall performance [2][4]. - The commencement of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project is expected to boost demand for the company's products, with an estimated annual demand elasticity of 6-8% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's cement revenue was 3.31 billion CNY, showing a slight increase in sales volume by 0.5% to 8.21 million tons, but the average price per ton decreased by 2.2 CNY to 403 CNY/ton [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 23.54%, a decline of 1.25 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 8.32%, down 2.64 percentage points [3]. - The company reported a significant drop in its chemical segment revenue, which fell by 3.3% to 810 million CNY, with PVC and urea sales declining by 2.5% and 23.2%, respectively [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to adjust its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 430 million CNY and 586 million CNY, respectively, due to the pressure on cement demand and losses in the chemical sector [4]. - The company has a solid capital structure with a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.90%, reflecting an improvement of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [3].