交通运输产业行业研究：2025年夏秋航季将启动，国内航司航班量同比小幅回落

Investment Rating - The industry is recommended for investment, with a positive outlook on airline performance due to improving supply-demand dynamics [5]. Core Insights - Domestic passenger flight volume has decreased, while international flight volume has increased year-on-year. Domestic airlines' passenger flight volume is 122,632 flights per week, down 3.4% year-on-year, but up 18.1% compared to 2019. Domestic, international, and regional flight volumes are 112,222, 8,932, and 1,478 flights per week, with year-on-year changes of -3.9%, +6.1%, and -16.8% respectively [2][3]. - Airlines may shift some domestic capacity to international markets to address rising international demand, alleviating pressure on domestic supply. Since late 2023, China has announced visa-free policies for several countries, leading to a recovery in international flight volumes, which have reached 81% of 2019 levels [2]. - Various airlines plan to reduce flight volumes, except for Huaxia Airlines, which anticipates an 11.3% year-on-year increase in flight volume. For the summer and autumn season of 2025, China National Airlines will operate 25,313 flights per week (-2.4% year-on-year), China Eastern Airlines 23,041 flights (-3.1%), and Southern Airlines 25,786 flights (-4.6%) [3]. - Shanghai Airport's passenger flight volume remains stable, with Pudong Airport showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year. International flight slots at Pudong Airport have increased by 7.8% year-on-year, indicating a faster recovery compared to other major airports [4]. Summary by Sections Flight Volume Trends - Domestic airlines' passenger flight volume is 122,632 flights per week, down 3.4% year-on-year, while international flights have increased by 6.1% [2]. - Huaxia Airlines is expected to see a significant increase in flight volume, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [3]. Airport Performance - Pudong Airport's international flight slots have increased by 7.8% year-on-year, while overall flight volumes at major airports show mixed results [4]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to see a supply-demand improvement, with a projected annual growth rate of around 3% for supply and high single-digit growth for demand. A 1% increase in ticket prices could yield over 1 billion yuan in profit for major airlines [5].