煤价或窄幅波动寻底，重点关注板块估值修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [4][13] - The report highlights that the coal price is expected to exhibit slight fluctuations as it seeks a bottom, with a stable price expectation around 800 RMB/ton for market prices and approximately 700 RMB/ton for long-term contracts [4][13] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, dividends, and a favorable valuation outlook, suggesting significant investment opportunities [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of March 14, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 683 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][33] - The international thermal coal price at Newcastle is 73.0 USD/ton, down 1.0 USD/ton week-on-week [3][33] - The report notes a slight decline in coal prices, indicating a potential bottoming out [4][13] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [4][13] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 12.40 thousand tons/day (-3.41%), while coastal provinces have seen an increase of 1.70 thousand tons/day (+0.89%) [4][13] - The report emphasizes that the supply-demand balance is currently stable, with a long-term supply gap expected to persist [4][14] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - As of March 13, coal inventory in coastal provinces has increased by 45.20 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces have seen a rise of 29.30 thousand tons [4][13] - The report indicates that coal inventories are relatively high, which may impact short-term price movements [4][13] 4. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [5][14] - It also highlights companies with significant upside potential due to previous underperformance, including Yancoal Australia and Tianma Intelligent Control [5][14] 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.97%, compared to a 1.59% rise in the CSI 300 index [18][20] - The report notes that the thermal coal segment has risen by 4.91%, indicating strong market interest [20]