2025年2月社融数据点评：社融增速走高，政府债仍是支撑

Financing Growth - The total social financing (社融) stock increased by 8.2% year-on-year in January-February 2025, with a growth rate up by 0.2 percentage points compared to January[2] - In February 2025, the social financing scale increased by 22,333 billion RMB, which is 7,374 billion RMB more than the same period last year, marking three consecutive months of year-on-year growth[2] - The new RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 58,700 billion RMB in January-February, a slight increase of 526 billion RMB year-on-year[2] Government Support - Government bond financing saw a significant year-on-year increase of 10,956 billion RMB, reaching 16,967 billion RMB in February 2025[2] - Local government bond issuance in January-February 2025 increased by 9,189 billion RMB compared to the same period last year, the highest level for this period historically[2] - The issuance of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 9,542 billion RMB in the first two months of 2025[2] Credit Trends - The proportion of new RMB loans in the total social financing scale decreased to approximately 29.13% in February, down by 44.8 percentage points from January and 36.2 percentage points year-on-year[2] - Corporate credit demand remains weak, with medium to long-term loans decreasing by 6,000 billion RMB year-on-year, despite a total increase of 58,200 billion RMB in corporate loans[2] - Resident loans increased by only 547 billion RMB in January-February, a decrease of 3,347 billion RMB year-on-year, indicating cautious consumer behavior[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with the urgency for further easing not strong in the short term due to better performance in credit data[2] - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a larger role, with potential expansions in special re-loans aimed at promoting consumption[2] - The M2 growth rate was stable at 7.0% year-on-year, while M1 growth slowed to 0.1%, indicating a need for further confidence in the real economy[3]