有色钢铁行业周观点（2025年第11周）：美国赤字与地区冲突推升价格上涨，关注黄金与小金属板块投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the U.S. deficit and regional conflicts are driving price increases, with a focus on investment opportunities in gold and minor metals [14]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $307 billion in February, a 4% year-on-year increase, raising inflation concerns and pushing COMEX gold prices above $3,000 per ounce, marking a historical high [14]. - The conflict in eastern Congo has led to the suspension of operations at a major tin mine, causing tin prices to surge to $37,000 per ton, the highest since June 2022 [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The consumption of rebar increased to 2.33 million tons, a 5.84% week-on-week rise, while the overall price index for common steel saw a slight increase of 0.29% [15][40]. - The average daily pig iron production among 247 steel companies was 230.59 thousand tons, showing a minimal increase of 0.03% [25]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in the profitability of long and short process rebar production, with long process margins down by 22 CNY/ton and short process margins down by 16 CNY/ton [37]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the TC/RC negative values are deepening, suggesting a potential for continued copper price increases, with LME aluminum prices rising to $2,713 per ton, a 0.74% week-on-week increase [17]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for copper is expected to grow due to sectors like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI [17]. Precious Metals - The COMEX gold price reached $2,993.6 per ounce, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase of 2.60%, with a notable decrease in non-commercial net long positions [17]. - The report suggests that tariffs may continue to elevate demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, indicating a favorable outlook for gold investments [17]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights a significant increase in China's lithium carbonate production in January 2025, which rose by 32.55% year-on-year, while nickel production saw a notable decline of 13.32% [46][48]. - The demand for new energy vehicles in China surged, with January 2025 production reaching 965,900 units, a 27.85% year-on-year increase [50].