KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-16 10:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the pig farming sector shows value for low-positioning, with a recovery in profitability expected alongside consumer demand recovery. The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at a relatively low level, indicating potential for investment [6][25] - The report emphasizes the ongoing support for pig prices from the entry of supplementary breeding in Northeast China, which is expected to stabilize prices in the short term [4][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Recent supplementary breeding has entered Northeast China, which may support pig prices. As of March 14, the national average price for live pigs was 14.57 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.83% [4][11] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 142,500 pigs, down 90 pigs from the previous week, indicating weak demand [4][11] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector's low-positioning value is becoming apparent, with a recovery in profitability expected as consumer demand rebounds. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][25] - The pet food market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.64% from 2025 to 2028, driven by rising consumer spending and domestic brands gaining market share [6][25] Market Performance (March 10-14) - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 1.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% and the agriculture index rising by 2.84% [31][33] - Key stocks that led the gains included Xue Rong Biological, Western Animal Husbandry, and Zhong Ji Health, with increases of 43.95%, 18.29%, and 13.13% respectively [31][35] Price Tracking (March 10-14) - The average price of live pigs was 14.65 yuan/kg, up 1.03% from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 33.87 yuan/kg, up 3.39% from the previous week [41][43] - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.11 yuan/kg, up 7.89% from the previous week, while the average price of yellow feather chickens was 10.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a price increase [40][46][47] Key News (March 10-14) - The USDA's March report adjusted global corn and wheat production upwards while lowering rice production forecasts. Corn production was increased by 1.7 million tons to 1.214 billion tons, and wheat production was increased by 3.44 million tons to 797 million tons [36]