Roborock(688169) 中国银河·2025-03-16 13:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, anticipating a return exceeding 10% relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [46]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing its industry advantages, with a significant increase in marketing investments leading to a rise in market share despite a decline in profit margins. The revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 11.927 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 37.82% [4][6]. - The company is expected to face profit pressure in 2025 due to declining margins, but with continued market share expansion, it is projected to return to rapid growth in revenue and profits by 2026 [46]. Company Performance Overview - The company went public in 2020, achieving a net profit margin of 30.2%. However, due to insufficient sales investment, its revenue remained at a second-tier level. From 2021 to 2023, increased sales expenses led to a decline in profit margins, but market share continued to rise, positioning the company among the top players in the industry [4]. - In 2023, the sales volumes of key competitors were reported as follows: iRobot at 3.03 million units, Ecovacs at 2.84 million units, and Roborock at 2.60 million units [4]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching 15.675 billion yuan in 2025 and 20.408 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 30% [47]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.981 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.41% year-on-year, with a further decline to 1.852 billion yuan in 2025 before rebounding to 2.413 billion yuan in 2026 [46][47]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 10.73 yuan in 2024, 10.03 yuan in 2025, and 13.06 yuan in 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability by 2026 [46][47]. Market Dynamics - The company is benefiting from national consumption stimulus policies, particularly the "old-for-new" appliance replacement program, which is expected to significantly boost sales in the home appliance sector [13][14]. - The clean appliance sector, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is projected to see substantial growth, with a sales increase of 41.1% in 2024, driven by government subsidies and heightened consumer demand [27][28].