高盛：人工智能数据中心设备-2024年第四季度市场份额及展望更新

Investment Ratings - Arista Networks Inc (ANET): Buy with a 12-month target price of $145 [16] - Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO): Neutral with a 12-month target price of $63 [17] - Dell Technologies (DELL): Buy with a 12-month target price of $145 [18] - F5 Inc (FFIV): Neutral with a 12-month target price of $295 [19] - Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI): Neutral with a 12-month target price of $40 [20] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE): Not Rated [21] - Juniper Networks (JNPR): Not Rated [22] Core Insights - The AI data center infrastructure market is expected to grow robustly through 2028, with AI servers projected to reach $335 billion by 2028, reflecting a 31% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2028 [4][7] - AI data center switching is anticipated to grow at a 41% CAGR, reaching $22 billion by 2028, with significant growth in back end Ethernet and front end Ethernet segments [3][10] - Traditional server estimates remain largely unchanged, with a slight upward revision of 4% on average for 2025/26 and a downward revision of 4% for 2027/28 [13] AI Data Center Market Outlook - AI server market growth is expected to be driven by hyperscaler customers at an 18% CAGR, Tier 2 Cloud at 58% CAGR, and enterprise at 48% CAGR [4][7] - The AI switching market is projected to grow at a 33% CAGR for hyperscalers, 45% CAGR for Tier 2 Cloud, and 58% CAGR for enterprise [3][7] - The overall AI data center market is expected to reach $334.5 billion by 2028, with traditional data center infrastructure showing more muted growth [7] Company-Specific Insights - Arista Networks (ANET) is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in data and digital transformation, with 43% of its 2023 revenue from cloud spending [23] - Cisco Systems (CSCO) remains a market leader but has faced market share losses due to competition from lower-cost providers [24] - Dell Technologies (DELL) is expected to benefit from AI server demand and a resurgence in PC trends, positioning itself as a key IT partner [27] - F5 Inc (FFIV) is diversifying its offerings to include security and observability features, which may offset mixed demand for its legacy products [29] - Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) is positioned as a leading AI infrastructure company, benefiting from partnerships with major suppliers [30]