APELOA(000739) 太平洋·2025-03-17 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Prolo Pharmaceutical (000739) [1] Core Views - Prolo Pharmaceutical is accelerating its integrated layout of raw materials and formulations, with CDMO expected to enter a new inflation era [1] - The company has established a 2030 development strategy focusing on refining raw materials, strengthening CDMO, enhancing pharmaceuticals, and expanding into medical beauty [4][19] - The company has demonstrated long-term development confidence through stock buybacks, with a total repurchase amount of 1.53 billion yuan planned for cancellation [4][23] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Prolo Pharmaceutical, founded in 1989 and listed in 2001, is a leading pharmaceutical manufacturer in China, focusing on raw materials, CDMO, pharmaceuticals, and medical beauty products [18] - The company has seven raw material production plants and two formulation plants, with a complete industrial chain from intermediates to sales channels [18][19] Raw Material and Medical Beauty Business - The company is a leading domestic player in specialty raw materials, with significant market positions in oral cephalosporins and other key products [5] - Prolo has increased the number of API projects significantly, with plans to add 30-50 new DMFs in the next 3-5 years [5] - The medical beauty division is expanding, focusing on cosmetic raw materials and collagen products, with future plans for botulinum toxin [5] CDMO Business Outlook - The CDMO sector is expected to enter a new inflation era, driven by supportive policies for innovative drugs and a significant increase in project numbers [6][8] - The company has seen a 42% year-on-year increase in projects, indicating a strong growth trajectory for its CDMO business [8] Revenue Growth and Business Segmentation - Prolo's revenue has grown from 78.80 billion yuan in 2020 to an estimated 120.22 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.14% [32] - The revenue contribution from CDMO and formulation businesses is increasing, with CDMO revenue growing at a CAGR of 15.60% from 2020 to 2024 [34] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 130.58 billion yuan, 143.93 billion yuan, and 159.58 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.53 billion yuan, 13.24 billion yuan, and 15.48 billion yuan [10][12]