化学制药 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 1、《业绩基本符合预期，期待头孢 完成出清》2025-05-08 2、《收入稳中有升、CDMO 业务值 得期待》2025-03-17 现稳健》2024-10-18 股价与行业-市场走势对比 报告摘要 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报，2025H1 年实现营业收入 54.44 亿元，同比减少 15.31%，归母净利润 5.63 亿元，同比减少 9.89%，扣非归母净利润 5.21 亿元，同比 减少 13.59%。 收入、利润阶段性承压，API、制剂业务夯实底部，CDMO 业务成长可期。分季度： 2025Q2 实现营业收入 27.14 亿元（同比-15.98%，环比-0.58%，下同），同比去年 高基数承压，归母净利润 3.15 亿元（-17.48%，+26.54%），扣非归母净利润 3.15 亿元（-13.29%，+53.10%），利润端环比 25Q1 明显改善。25H1 业绩阶段性承压主 要由于公司 API、制剂业务受国内部分抗生素品种竞争加剧、供需结构调整致需求疲 软以及集采续约价格冲击等多重因素影响有所下滑。分业务：1）API 中间体：25H1、 2025Q2 ...

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 26 日 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 普洛药业(000739) 唐爱金 医药首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] CDMO 业务保持高景气度，项目管线储备丰富 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]8 月 20 日，公司发布《2025 年半年度报告》。2025H1 公司 实现营业收入 54.44 亿元，同比下滑 15.31%；实现归母净利润 5.63 亿元， 同比下滑 9.89%；实现扣非净利润 5.21 亿元，同比下滑 13.59%。单季度 来看，2025Q2 公司实现营业收入 27.14 亿元，同比下滑 1 ...

核心结论 分析师 晨会纪要 【策略】"资金洞察"系列报告（四）：居民存款，何时搬家？ 居民资金尚未跑步入市，但存款搬家已经初现端倪。历史上，居民存款搬家 一般在熊牛切换后的 10-12 个月开启，当前距离去年 9.24 熊牛切换已有 11 个月，居民存款搬家可期。在居民存款搬家初期，市场可能会有 2-3 个月的 盘整；但如果存款搬家带动各类资金放量流入，市场或迎来新一轮主升浪行 情。 【机械设备】无人车系列专题报告 1：无人环卫车：千亿市场空间，设备+ 运营双重受益 随着无人环卫领域逐步度过 0-1 阶段步入量产，环卫领域运营企业有望迎来 一轮设备高景气成长+运营业务盈利显著改善，走出业绩+估值双提振的戴维 斯双击，建议关注劲旅环境/玉禾田/福龙马/侨银股份/盈峰环境。 【专用设备】国产算力链崛起，关注上游自主可控环节 当前我们认为科创 50 成分股和半导体设备股交集具备较大的补涨潜力，本 轮国产 AI 行情具备更强的基本面支撑，我们认为半导体上游的自主可控环 节作为产业链核心瓶颈，核心受益，建议关注：半导体前道设备/后道测试 设备，光刻机产业链相关标的。 【计算机】国能日新（301162.SZ）2025 半 ...

Macro Insights - The economic growth rate in August is expected to be supported by exports and consumption policies, despite a significant slowdown in the real estate sector, with a target of 5% annual growth remaining achievable [1][15][12] - The industrial added value in July grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with the manufacturing sector showing resilience, particularly in high-tech products and equipment manufacturing [12][13] - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 1.6% year-on-year in the first seven months, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 12% [13][14] Strategy Insights - Current channels for resident capital entering the market include increasing financing balances and active personal investor accounts, leading to a positive feedback loop in the market [2] - The "anti-involution" market trend can be analyzed through policy expectations and real-world transmission, indicating a shift from theme-driven to profit-driven market dynamics [2] - The technology and small-cap sectors are expected to continue outperforming as more external funds enter the market [2] Industry Reports - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to see significant opportunities with the upcoming release of new products, particularly in AI-related applications [8] - The coal mining industry is experiencing a continuous improvement in fundamentals, with the price of thermal coal expected to rise [8] - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative drugs, is projected to maintain a positive outlook due to improved profitability [8]

开源证券研报指出，普洛药业2025年上半年业绩有所下降，CDMO业务较快增长。2025年上半年公司 CDMO业务实现收入12.36亿元（+20.32%），毛利率44.04%（+3.95pct），公司进行中项目1180个，同 比增长35%，其中，商业化阶段项目377个，同比增长19%，包括人用药项目279个，兽药项目49个，其 他项目49个；研发阶段项目803个，同比增长44%。2025年上半年公司原料药中间体板块实现收入36.03 亿元（-23.41%），毛利率13.7%（-2.52pct），公司制剂板块收入5.83亿元（-14.2%），毛利率61.03% （+0.73pct）。当前股价对应PE为16.1/13.8/11.5倍，估值性价比高，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Company Overview - Prolo Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is located at 399 Jiangnan Road, Hengdian, Dongyang, Zhejiang Province, established on May 6, 1997, and listed on May 9, 1997. The company’s main business includes raw materials, intermediates, contract development and manufacturing services (CDMO), formulation business, and import-export trade [2]. Business Segmentation - The revenue composition of Prolo Pharmaceutical is as follows: 66.18% from raw materials and intermediates, 22.71% from innovative drug R&D and manufacturing services, 10.71% from pharmaceuticals, and 0.40% from other supplementary services [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Prolo Pharmaceutical achieved operating revenue of 5.444 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.31%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 563 million yuan, down 9.89% year-on-year [2]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of Prolo Pharmaceutical was 51,400, a decrease of 0.52% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person were 22,508, down 0.41% [2]. Dividend Distribution - Prolo Pharmaceutical has cumulatively distributed 2.472 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.129 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 29.8493 million shares, a decrease of 2.0211 million shares from the previous period. Dachen Rui Xiang Mixed A (008269) increased its holdings by 4.0348 million shares to 14.2896 million shares, while Dachen Gao Xin Stock A (000628) increased its holdings by 2.3396 million shares to 13.0642 million shares [3]. Stock Performance - On August 22, Prolo Pharmaceutical's stock price fell by 2.05% to 16.26 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 88.4757 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.47%. The total market capitalization was 18.836 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 2.22%, with a 0.55% decline over the last five trading days, a 1.31% increase over the last 20 days, and a 16.81% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent appearance on March 11, where it recorded a net buy of -145 million yuan [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 5.444 billion yuan (down 15.31% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 563 million yuan (down 9.89% year-on-year). However, the CDMO business showed rapid growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.177 billion, 1.374 billion, and 1.652 billion yuan respectively, indicating a high valuation cost-effectiveness [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.444 billion yuan (down 15.31% year-on-year) and a net profit of 563 million yuan (down 9.89% year-on-year). The gross margin was 25.73% (up 1.03 percentage points) and the net margin was 10.34% (up 0.62 percentage points) [4] - For Q2 2025, revenue was 2.714 billion yuan (down 15.98% year-on-year) with a net profit of 315 million yuan (down 17.48% year-on-year) [4] - The CDMO business generated revenue of 1.236 billion yuan (up 20.32% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 44.04% (up 3.95 percentage points) [5] - The company has 1,180 ongoing projects, a 35% increase year-on-year, with 377 projects in the commercialization stage (up 19% year-on-year) and 803 projects in the research phase (up 44% year-on-year) [5] R&D and Cost Structure - The company employed 1,155 R&D personnel in the first half of 2025, with over 500 in the CDMO segment. The sales expense ratio increased to 4.77%, while the R&D expense ratio was 5.95% [6] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 16.1, 13.8, and 11.5 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [4][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.44 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 15.31%, with a net profit of 5.63 billion yuan, down by 9.89% [7] - The company's CDMO business is experiencing rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 20.32% to 12.36 billion yuan, while the raw material drug business faced challenges, with revenue declining by 23.41% to 36.03 billion yuan [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.896 billion yuan, 11.512 billion yuan, and 13.081 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.028 billion yuan, 1.224 billion yuan, and 1.477 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023A was 11,474 million yuan, with a growth rate of 8.8%, while the forecast for 2025E is 10,896 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.4% [6][8] - The net profit for 2023A was 1,055 million yuan, with a growth rate of 6.7%, and is expected to be 1,028 million yuan in 2025E, showing a slight decline of 0.3% [6][8] - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.73%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points compared to the previous period [7] Business Structure and Strategy - The company has formed a "funnel" model for its CDMO project structure, with 1,180 ongoing projects, of which 377 are in the commercialization stage [7] - The company is advancing its business transformation strategy, focusing on "starting raw materials + registered intermediates + API + formulations," with a total of 134 API projects [7] - The company is accelerating its "multi-variety" strategy in the formulation business, with 68 projects under research, including a semaglutide injection that has entered phase III clinical trials [7]

Core Viewpoint - Prolo Pharmaceutical's recent financial report indicates a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, while showing improvements in profitability metrics such as gross margin and net margin [1][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 5.444 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.31% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 563 million yuan, down 9.89% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 2.714 billion yuan, a decline of 15.98% year-on-year, with net profit at 315 million yuan, down 17.48% year-on-year [1]. - Gross margin improved to 25.73%, an increase of 4.18% year-on-year, while net margin rose to 10.34%, up 6.44% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Expenses - Total selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 443 million yuan, representing 8.13% of revenue, an increase of 11.64% year-on-year [1]. - Cash flow from operating activities decreased significantly by 58.48%, attributed to a reduction in contract liabilities and accounts payable [3]. Asset and Liabilities - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to 3.574 billion yuan, down 9.48% year-on-year [1]. - Interest-bearing liabilities increased to 1.208 billion yuan, a rise of 15.30% year-on-year [1]. Investment and Returns - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 13.02%, indicating strong capital returns, with a historical median ROIC of 12.88% over the past decade [4]. - Analysts project the company's performance for 2025 to reach 1.052 billion yuan, with an average earnings per share of 0.91 yuan [4]. Fund Management - Prolo Pharmaceutical is held by prominent fund manager Xu Yan from Dachen Fund, who has recently increased his holdings in the company [5][6]. - The largest fund holding Prolo Pharmaceutical is Dachen Rui Xiang Mixed A, with a scale of 5.194 billion yuan and a recent net value increase of 0.86% [6]. Business Outlook - The company's CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business is primarily driven by overseas revenue, expected to grow significantly in the next 3 to 5 years, with projections of reaching 6 to 7 billion yuan by 2030 [7].

Group 1: Company Performance Overview - API business revenue decreased by 23.41% due to industry downturn and active contraction of low-margin trading business [3] - CDMO business achieved over 20% growth with significant margin improvement, now accounting for nearly 40% of total gross profit [6] - Total number of CDMO clients exceeded 650, projected to surpass 700 by year-end [6] Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - China's CDMO industry has returned to a healthy growth state after disruptions in 2022 and 2023 [4] - The license-out fees for Chinese innovative drugs rose from tens of billions in 2021-2022 to nearly $50 billion in 2022, with 2023 already exceeding last year's total [3] - The US and China are leading in innovative drug development, creating significant opportunities for the CDMO sector [4] Group 3: Future Projections - CDMO business revenue is expected to reach 6-7 billion by 2030, with a balanced market share between China and the US [11] - The overall industry is anticipated to recover gradually, with a clear bottom observed in 2023 [12] - The average gross margin for CDMO projects is projected to increase from 35%-40% to 45%-55% as project structures optimize [13] Group 4: Product and Service Development - The company has over 1,180 CDMO projects, with 377 commercialized and 803 in clinical stages, reflecting a 35% year-on-year growth [6] - The multi-peptide CDMO business is expanding, with over 60 projects in various stages of development [15] - The company is enhancing its R&D capabilities, with plans to increase CDMO R&D personnel from 900 to over 2,000 by 2030 [16] Group 5: Financial Returns and Shareholder Value - Total cash dividends and buybacks have exceeded $3.2 billion, significantly higher than the total cash raised of $1.458 billion since listing [9] - The company is committed to shareholder returns while ensuring operational and developmental sustainability [10] Group 6: API Business Insights - API prices are stabilizing, with a projected recovery in the market, particularly in the antibiotic sector [17] - The company aims to adjust its product structure, reducing antibiotic reliance and increasing non-antibiotic offerings [18] - The industrial segment of API business is expected to reach 7 billion, focusing on a diverse product portfolio [18] Group 7: International Market Dynamics - Overseas revenue accounted for approximately 40% last year, expected to maintain between 40%-50% in the future [19] - The company maintains a competitive edge in API manufacturing, with expectations of limited impact from potential tariff changes [19]