化学制品行业专题：有机硅拐点渐至，景气度有望回升

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [2] Core Viewpoints - The organic silicon capacity expansion cycle is nearing its end, and supply-demand is expected to rebalance. The domestic demand for organic silicon is anticipated to rise as the real estate sector stabilizes, with construction accounting for 25.21% of the demand. The demand is also expected to grow in the medical, photovoltaic, and automotive sectors due to the superior performance of organic silicon [5][6][41]. - Profitability is at a low point, but the industry is expected to recover. The organic silicon DMC industry is currently experiencing overall losses, but with a decrease in capital expenditure and an increase in operating rates, profitability is projected to improve [7][54]. - The industry has a high concentration, with leading companies expanding their market share. As of the end of 2024, the domestic DMC CR5 capacity accounted for 62%, with Hoshine Silicon holding a 26% share, indicating a competitive landscape dominated by a few key players [8][57]. Summary by Sections 1. Organic Silicon Capacity Expansion Cycle - The organic silicon industry is entering a phase where capacity expansion is minimal, with a total capacity of 344 million tons in China and 159.5 million tons overseas by 2024 [6][24]. - The construction sector is the largest application area for organic silicon, with a significant share in various industries including electronics and renewable energy [21][32]. 2. Profitability and Market Recovery - The organic silicon industry is currently in a loss phase, with operating rates improving to 80.69% as of January 2025, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [7][51]. - The price of organic silicon intermediates has reached historical lows, suggesting that the market may be at a turning point [51][54]. 3. Industry Concentration and Key Players - The organic silicon market is characterized by high concentration, with major players like Hoshine Silicon, Dongyue Silicon, and Xingsheng Group leading the market [8][57]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies such as Hoshine Silicon, Xingsheng Group, and Dongyue Silicon, which are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [9][59].