高盛：中国半导体行业2024 年-第四季度回顾

Investment Ratings - Vanchip: Neutral [3][7] - NSIG: Sell [10][15] - Sanan: Sell [20][24] Core Insights - Vanchip is expanding its product lines and market share in the Chinese smartphone sector, despite a significant decline in net income and revenue in 4Q24 [2][3] - NSIG is facing pricing pressure due to modest end demand and high depreciation costs from previous capacity expansions, leading to a net loss in 4Q24 [10][13] - Sanan is transitioning to SiC production and expanding its compound semiconductors business, but growth may take time to offset declines in its legacy LED business [20][21] Vanchip Summary - 4Q24 net income was Rmb3 million, down 95% YoY, with revenue at Rmb611 million, a 55% YoY decline but a 45% QoQ increase [3][4] - The company announced a Rmb350 million capital increase to support R&D for high-performance RF modules [3][4] - Earnings estimates for 2024 have been revised down, with a target price maintained at Rmb49.1 based on a 29x 2025E target PE [7][9] NSIG Summary - 4Q24 net loss was Rmb434 million, with revenues of Rmb909 million, reflecting a 14% YoY increase but a 9% miss against expectations [10][11] - The earnings decline is attributed to a slower-than-expected recovery in the wafer industry and high fixed costs from capacity expansion [10][13] - Net income estimates for 2025-27E have been revised down by 5% to 10% due to lower revenues and higher depreciation [15][19] Sanan Summary - Sanan has started 8-inch SiC production with a weekly capacity of 500 units, but growth in this area is expected to take time [20][21] - The company is focusing on expanding its compound semiconductors business and transitioning to Mini/Micro LED technologies [20][21] - Net income estimates for 2024 have been revised up by 14% to Rmb543 million, while 2025-26E net incomes have been adjusted down by 2% due to increased R&D expenses [21][22]