高盛：宏观研究最关注什么？聚焦美国 “例外论” 的衰落

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for US equities, with a lowered year-end 2025 S&P 500 index target from 6500 to 6200, reflecting a downgrade in US growth forecasts [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift from US exceptionalism to a more favorable outlook for European and emerging market equities, driven by a significant valuation gap and expected growth from increased European defense spending [2][4]. - The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 1.7% from 2.4%, influenced by an anticipated rise in the average US tariff rate by 10 percentage points [1][5]. - European equities are expected to outperform, with revised EPS growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 increased to 4%, 6%, and 6% respectively [2][4]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The average US tariff rate is projected to rise by 10 percentage points this year, significantly impacting GDP growth forecasts [1][5]. - The S&P 500 has entered correction territory, reflecting market adjustments to lower growth expectations [1][2]. European Economic Outlook - European equities are anticipated to continue their strong performance due to a large valuation gap compared to US equities and increased defense spending [2][4]. - The report notes positive developments in fiscal policy from the EU Council and Germany, supporting the outlook for European markets [2][4]. Emerging Markets - The report suggests that both China and broader emerging market equities have shown relative strength this year, with potential for further gains [2][4].