基础化工：代糖行业格局向好，产品价格有望开启向上周期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The sugar substitute industry is showing a favorable trend, with product prices expected to enter an upward cycle [1] - The market for sucralose is highly concentrated among four main producers, indicating potential for price increases due to collaborative efforts among manufacturers [6] - The demand for sugar substitutes is expected to grow steadily, supported by rising health awareness and the expansion of the no-sugar beverage market [10] Summary by Relevant Sections - Market Dynamics: On February 16, major sucralose producers held a summit to strengthen alliances and collaborate on development. As of March 10, these producers collectively stopped reporting prices, leading to a price increase of 0.5-0.8 million yuan per ton, with the latest price at 250,000 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 100% [5][6] - Production Capacity: As of March 2025, China's sucralose production capacity is approximately 34,800 tons, a 126% increase from 15,400 tons in 2020. The market is dominated by four companies, with a CR4 of 91.95% [6] - Price Trends: The price of sucralose has seen significant fluctuations, dropping from a peak of 480,000 yuan per ton in 2021 to a low of 100,000 yuan per ton in July 2024, before recovering to 250,000 yuan per ton by March 2025 [6] - Investment Opportunities: Companies such as Jinhe Industrial and Cuhua Co. are recommended for investment as product prices are expected to rise, leading to improved performance [11] - Export Growth: China is the largest producer and exporter of sugar substitutes, with export volumes for sucralose and acesulfame-K increasing by 14.02% and 22.61% year-on-year, respectively, in 2024 [10]