海外宏观周报：美国通胀降温，关税威胁延续

Economic Policy - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, effective March 12, with threats of additional tariffs on Canadian imports and a 200% tariff on EU wine[6] - February CPI and core CPI in the US recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both below expectations, with core CPI year-on-year at 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021[10] - The US PPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in February, also below expectations, marking the smallest increase since July of the previous year[11] Market Trends - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 2.3%, 3.1%, and 2.4% respectively over the week, reflecting ongoing concerns about government shutdown risks and tariff threats[22] - The US 2-year Treasury yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.02%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.31%[26] - Gold prices rose by 1.6% to $2978 per ounce, with spot gold reaching $3000 per ounce on March 14, driven by market uncertainty and tariff policies[29] Consumer Confidence - The US consumer confidence index for March dropped to 57.9, significantly below the expected 63.1, marking the lowest level since November 2022[14] - One-year inflation expectations among consumers rose from 4.3% in February to 4.9% in March, indicating growing concerns about future economic conditions[14] Global Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering pausing interest rate cuts if data supports it, amid ongoing inflation risks[19] - Japan's central bank governor indicated that potential inflation is expected to accelerate as the economy continues to recover, with companies committing to a 5.46% wage increase[21]