银行投资观察：坚定看好顺周期复苏-兵马已动，粮草先行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for a cyclical recovery, driven by fiscal stimulus and improving economic indicators, suggesting that March will see an acceleration in economic recovery [20][21][22] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The banking sector saw an overall increase of 1.3% during the observation period from March 10 to March 14, 2025, ranking 21st among all industries [18] - The A-share banking stocks performed better than H-share counterparts, with notable increases in stocks like Huaxia Bank (up 5.99%) and Ningbo Bank (up 4.67%) [18][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the fiscal spending peak is approaching, which will significantly enhance economic demand, indicating a positive trend for the banking sector [20][21] - It highlights that the market remains pessimistic, but the overall impact of increased deficit rates and social financing expansion will likely boost economic recovery in the first half of the year [21][22] Financial Forecasts - The earnings growth expectations for A-share banks in 2025 remain largely unchanged from previous forecasts, indicating stability in profit projections [19] - The average price of bank convertible bonds increased by 0.25%, outperforming the Zhongzheng convertible bond index by 0.10 percentage points [19] Valuation Metrics - As of March 14, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 6.31x, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 0.66x, reflecting a valuation that is in line with historical averages [48]